robertts12

do Cre dit Suis se, escrito aqui para melhor visualização.

Access Key Navigation

* Direct to the start page
* Direct to content
* Direct to the sidebar content
* Direct to the language selector
* Direct to the navigation

To the Credit Suisse Homepage
Navigation

* Individuals
* Corporates & Institutions
* Investment Banking
* Asset Management
* Careers
* About Us

Main navigation

* Who We Are
* Media
* Investor Relations
* Corporate Governance
* Corporate Citizenship
* Sponsorship
* In Focus

Navigation In Focus

* Economy
o Overview
o Global Trends
o Switzerland
o Europe
o The Americas
o Asia
o Middle East and Africa
o Sectors & Companies
* Society
o Overview
o Current Affairs
o Sustainability
o Swiss Worry Barometer
o Commitment
* Culture
o Overview
o Classical Music
o Art
o Jazz & Pop
o Film & Theater
o Other Sponsorship Activities
* Sports
o Overview
o Football
o Sports
o Golf
o Equestrian Sport
* Interviews
* Credit Suisse
* Dossiers
o Overview
o Financial Crisis
o Globalization
o Swiss Financial Center
o Information Technology
o China
o Commodities & Energy
o Derivatives & Hedge Funds
o Sustainable Investments
o Foreign Exchange
o Real Estate
o The ABC of Investment
o Your Own Home
o Succession
o Swiss Venture Club
o Job & Career
o 150 Years
+ Overview
+ Events Switzerland
+ Events International
+ Features & Interviews
o European Union
* Services
o Overview
o Contests
o News via RSS
o Podcasts
* Newsletter

Home >About Us >In Focus >Economy >Europe
Europe

Greece — A Test Case for Europe

Joy Bolli, Online Publications

19.02.2010 Greece, Portugal, Spain and other euro zone members have massive public deficits. What does this mean for the euro's future? An interview with Giles Keating, head of Global Research.



Play video in a new window Play Video
Related Links:

Market Data & Research
Joy Bolli: Giles, how is the current situation in Greece affecting the euro?
Giles Keating: It's one of a number of factors that are tending to drag the euro down against the dollar. More generally, difficulties in one or two credit areas around the world – such as Dubai – tend to be bad for the euro. But clearly, the problem in Greece, which has made investors nervous, has resulted in a safe haven flow out of euros and into dollars.

Politicians have not come up with a concrete plan to solve the situation. Will the European Central Bank have to bail out countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain in the future?
Politicians in France, Germany and elsewhere have signaled that they'll provide some kind of back-up support, but only when Greece has really taken tough measures – possibly more than they have done already – to get the deficit down. Although that may be unsettling to some investors in the very short term, it's clearly good news for the euro in the longer term. Why? Because France, Germany and the other big countries are saying they're not going to write a blank check. They are going to require Greece, and indeed any other country needing support, to put its own house in order before receiving support from the others. This refusal to write a blank check bodes very well for the stability of the euro in the longer term. By the way, the European Central Bank is technically subject to the EU treaties. It is not allowed to bail out Greece. So it would have to come from the other countries on a bilateral basis.

How high is the risk of payment default for Greece?
Very very small, though one can never say zero. Indeed, one can never say there is a zero probability for any event in the financial markets. But the whole point about the political signals we've seen from the other countries is that although they aren't writing a blank check, they are determined to avoid any kind of outright default.

Some analysts say that Greece is a test case for the European Union. What are the possible scenarios?
The current events surrounding Greece are leading to the creation of a kind of model. This will provide at least a broad framework should other countries in the euro zone get into trouble. Portugal, Spain and Ireland may be affected, as well as Italy to a lesser extent. Hence, the Greek case is very important. It's about creating a system offering some kind of residual support for weaker countries.

The euro encompasses strong economies like Germany and France on the one hand, and weak economies like Greece on the other. How can the European Union master this imbalance?
What recent events have shown us is that France, Germany and the stronger countries are prepared to underwrite deflation in the weak countries, but not inflation. If they'd offered support before Greece had taken tough measures, then that really would have been allowing Greece to take an inflation route. As it is, by insisting that Greece cuts the budget deficit, reduces wages, gets down prices – with limited support if this leads to severe economic problems – France and Germany are in effect underwriting deflation. That is a recipe for stability in the longer run. And by the way, it's a problem that any large currency area has to face. The US for example has stronger areas, as well as weaker ones, like California at the moment.

Experience shows us that there is opportunity in every crisis. Where are the opportunities for investors to be found in this Greek tragedy?
Opportunities are both local and global. Locally, some investors are now looking at Greek bonds (the prices of which have fallen very sharply during the crisis) and wonder if they are now starting to offer value. As with any investment strategy, a judgment has to be made as to whether the situation will stabilize, but once this begins to look more and more likely, a case can be made for some of the bonds at lower prices. These have fallen and now offer value. We can extend this to a number of other asset prices that have fallen during the crisis. We're talking for example about some of the bonds in other European countries like Spain.

But we're also looking globally at equity prices that have fallen generally during the crisis as well as – as we said at the beginning – the weaker euro. Taking this view from here, the worst of the crisis is now over and things will begin to stabilize. There will however be a risk of recurring bouts of instability from time to time, when some of the markets which have sold off can recover. We see this current weakness in global stock markets as a nice entry point for the longer term. Stock markets are still trending upwards, even if it's a much bumpier and a more limited ride that it was last year.
Right Column

* Contact

* Contact us
* Press Contacts
* Shareholder Contacts
* Where To Find Us

*



Newsletter
Newsletter
Newsletter
More Articles
More Articles

* Spanish Economy Remains Under Pressure
* Europe's 2010 Growth May Surprise to the Upside
* Is Hungary Pulling Out of a Tricky Situation?
* Eastern Europe Suffering due to the Hard Franc


In Focus
In Focus
Portrait

* Portrait

Abdullah Ibrahim — Musician with Political Impact


Corporate Culture

* Corporate Culture

Gradual Transformation of Corporate Culture


Picture gallery

* Picture gallery

With Roger Federer on a School Visit in Ethiopia


Video

* Video

Greece — A Test Case for Europe


Top Video
Top 10 Investment Ideas for 2010Multimedia Archive
Financial Podcast
Financial Podcast
Subscribe via iTunes Open in a new window.
Subscribe to RSS Feed Open in a new window.
Global Investor Podcast Open in a new window.
What is a Podcast?

Dossier
Dossier
selection of articles on the financial market crisis

* Selection of Articles On the Financial Market Crisis


Web Services
Web Services
E-mail this page : E-mail this page
News via RSS : News via RSS
Market Podcast : Market Podcast


Footer - Credit Suisse Group
Print: Print
Accessibility Site Map Index A-Z

Copyright © 1997 – 2010 CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Terms of Use, Privacy Policiy and Global Patriot Act Certificate.

Language selector

* IT
* FR
* DE
* EN


Search - Credit Suisse Group
Search:
Fontsize: Larger Fontsize Smaller Fontsize

* Contact us
* Choose Country
* Home

tirado so site yahoo:
Cup With Handle: Classic Bullish Pattern
investorsbusinessdaily

o
Buzz up! 33
o Print

On Friday February 12, 2010, 5:12 pm EST

Of all the bullish chart patterns — bases and add-on points alike — the classic seems to be the cup with handle. It's the most successful pattern, likely because it represents some elements of human nature.

So what is a proper cup with handle?

The pattern must run at least seven weeks from the stock's prior high. Sometimes the pattern can take months or more than a year to take shape.

The base's buy point should be no further than 15% or so from the stock's 52-week high.

The cup should be no deeper than 35%, though that limit can be stretched in a bear market. The market crash of 2008 made for some deep yet adequate bases in the context of that severe decline.

Like any base, the stock must show a prior uptrend of no less than 30%, or 20% from a previous breakout. Ideally, the left side is constructed in a not-too-sharp manner. A sudden plunge makes for a somewhat flawed left side.

In the same way, a sudden surge to create a right side is also a flaw. If the stock has both, it is said to be a V-shaped base, prone to failure.

Volume will probably spike some as the stock falls, and hopefully pick up as it climbs the right side. Ideally, you'd like to see calm, smooth left and right sides. Now, what about that space in between the left and right sides? That's the base's bottom. Don't fret if the bottom lies below the 10-week moving average, as long as the breakout is placed above that crucial line.

Along the lows, volume should calm down. Unlike the impatience shown when the stock is falling, most of the players have turned their attention elsewhere.

So who's buying it down there? Often, smart fund managers and others who have pegged this as a bargain. They're not chasing the stock, they're just setting an invisible net under the stock to catch whatever someone wants to throw away.

Why shouldn't you buy the stock at the base's bottom?

Simple — you don't know it's the bottom until after the base is completed. Nor do you know that the left side is a left side, or that the right side is a right side.

Many times has a stock plunged from what had looked like a cup's bottom. It had just been a pause within a larger decline.

At some point, the weak hands and impatient sellers will be washed out. Now, if the bulls want any more shares, they have to pay up a bit. They have to raise that invisible net.

This shouldn't be a sudden rush to buy the stock. That would make for that imperfect, sharp right-side incline. No, you'd rather see a smoother, somewhat gradual rise. Volume should pick up as big investors start to accumulate shares.

As the stock nears the left-side peak, those sellers will likely stall the rally. The stock declines.

But it shouldn't dive. The stock should decline in an orderly fashion. This is how the handle forms.

Handle Characteristics

The handle must take at least five days to form and should be visible on the weekly chart. It should not sag more than 12% to 15%. Volume should be calm in this area of the base, and the price action should be fairly calm too.

The handle should form in the upper half of the base. Low handles are prone to failure.

The handle's highest point, plus a dime, gives you the stock's buy point. Voila.

Try out IBD Investing Tools absolutely FREE with a 2-Week FREE trial of investors.com

copiei aqui porque não dava para ler na fonte.
How to Avoid Big Declines Using Market Timing PDF Print E-mail
Written by Chuck LeBeau
Sunday, February 15 2009 09:12

A very comprehensive study of the Dow Jones Industrials caught my eye recently and I want to share some thoughts and conclusions based on the data in the study. The data I will be referring to is from a study encompassing more than 100 years of daily data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Black Swans and Market Timing: How Not To Generate Alpha, by Javier Estrada, International Graduate School of Management, Barcelona, Spain). The data presented in this study begins on December 31, 1899 and ends on December 31, 2006. In total, the study encompasses 29,190 trading days. I have highlighted the data about avoiding the worst days, since it’s usually ignored:

* 1) A $100 investment at the beginning of 1900 turned into $25,746 by the end 2006, and delivered a mean annual compound return of 5.3%.
* 2) Missing the best 10 days reduced the terminal wealth by 65% to $9,008, and the mean annual compound return one percentage point to 4.3%. But avoiding the worst 10 days increased the terminal wealth by 206% to $78,781, and the mean annual compound return by more than one percentage point to 6.4%.
* 3) Missing the best 20 days reduced the terminal wealth by 83.2% to $4,313, and the mean annual compound return to 3.6%. But avoiding the worst 20 days increased the terminal wealth by 531.5% to $162,588, and the mean annual compound return to 7.2%.
* 4) Missing the best 100 days reduced the terminal wealth by 99.7% to just $83 ($17 less than the initial capital invested), and reduced the mean annual compound return to −0.2%. But avoiding the worst 100 days increased the terminal wealth by a staggering 43,396.8% to $11,198,734, and more than doubled the mean annual compound return to 11.5%.

The author of this study concludes that these outlier days in either direction (the so-called “Black Swans”) are so rare that it would be impossible for market timers to capture or avoid them.

I strongly disagree.

First, let’s look at what it is we want to do with market timing. Do we want to capture the positive Black Swans or simply avoid the negative Black Swans? It would seem obvious that we would want to do both, but if we had to choose only one course of action, it’s clear that we can derive the most benefit from avoiding the negative Black Swans—so let’s start with that. Let’s see if we can avoid big declines using market timing.

As director of quantitative analytics at SmartStops.net I recently directed a ten-year study of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index. The study was intended to measure the various peak-to-valley drawdowns of each of the 500 stocks. Any drawdown of 15% or more was identified and measured. Since this article is focused on big drawdowns (the Black Swans), we will only look at peak-to-valley declines of 60% or more. Here is the data:

* 1) Of the 500 stocks, 267 of them had experienced a drawdown of 60% or more.
* 2) 175 of them had experienced a drawdown of 70% or more.
* 3) 105 of them had experienced a drawdown of 80% or more
* 4) And 51 of them had experienced a drawdown of 90% or more.
* 5) The average of the largest drawdown of the 500 stocks was 61.67%.


Those numbers might seem high at first glance, but they are actually understated by quite a bit. The drawdown study ended in May of 2008 and we all know that the market has gone down a great deal since then; clearly, the magnitude of the drawdowns would be even greater if the same study were conducted today. Also, as in any long-term study of a group of stocks, the results are skewed by “survivorship bias.” There were a lot of stocks that might have been in the S&P 500 ten years ago, but for one reason or another they are no longer in the current index. Some of those stocks have declined to zero and are not included in the study.

Having looked at the nature of the problem, let’s get back to the task at hand. Can market timing help us to avoid these drawdowns? Yes, it definitely can. A logical application of trailing stops would have avoided most of the big declines. Here are the results using the SmartStops trailing exits that are available for free on our web site:

* 1) Of the 500 stocks, only four of them had declines of 60% or more.
* 2) There were no stocks that had declines of 70%, 80% or 90%.
* 3) The average of the largest drawdown of the 500 stocks was 22.58%


Now I must admit that I think that our SmartStops trailing exits are more sophisticated and effective than most trailing exits because the SmartStops are adjusted daily for trend direction and changes in volatility. However, any serious effort at limiting the drawdowns with conventional trailing stops would certainly have had a very positive effect in reducing the magnitude of these declines. As the quoted Black Swan study clearly shows, the avoidance of big declines improves performance very significantly. Here is a reminder of how that works:

* 1) It takes a gain of 150% to recover from a 60% decline.
* 2) It takes a gain of 333% to recover from a 70% decline.
* 3) It takes a gain of 500% to recover from an 80% decline.
* 4) It takes a gain of 900% to recover from a 90% decline.
* 5) It takes a government bailout to recover from any decline greater than 90%.


Skeptics of market timing usually argue that efforts to avoid big down moves will result in missing the biggest up moves. However I have never seen a study that shows any evidence to support that preposterous assumption. If you limit your losses and are willing to enter on strength you should not miss any major up trends. With a little planning and effort, you can capture the Black Swans on the up side—and avoid the Black Swans on the down side.

Chuck LeBeau is director of quantitative analytics at SmartStops.net and co-author of Computer Analysis of the Futures Markets (McGraw-Hill). For more of Chuck's commentary, visit SmartStops.net and Chuck's System Trader Club

Article written for TradingMarkets http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/how_to/articles/How-To-Avoid-Big-Declines-Using-Market-Timing-79099.cfm
LAST_UPDATED2

Este é o cache do Google de http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16657.html. Ele é um instantâneo da página com a aparência que ela tinha em 2 fev. 2010 10:47:06 GMT. A página atual pode ter sido alterada nesse meio tempo. Saiba mais

Versão somente texto
Estes termos de pesquisa estão realçados: stock market black swan

The Market Oracle


* Home
* Newsletter
* RSS Feed
* Help
o FAQ
o Terms of Use
o Privacy Policy
o Submit Articles
o About


Google
Custom Search

* Commodities
* Companies
* Consumer Watch
* Currencies
* Economics
* Elliott Waves
* Election Oracle
* Housing Markets
* Interest Rates
* Investor Education
* Personal Finance
* Politics & Social
* Portfolio Building
* Stock & Financial Markets
* Video Analysis
*

* Authors Archive
* Featured Analysis
* Most Popular
* Best Analysis Archive
* Recommended Reading
*

Best of the Week
Most Popular of the Week
1.Economic Depression Wealth Preservation, Investing, and Prepping in 2010 - Mac_Slavo
2.Are We In An Economic Depression?- Bob_Chapman
3.Insider's View of the U.S. Real Estate Train Wreck Crash- David_Galland
4.Global Economies Debt Crisis, Japan Heading for Currency Crisis- Paul_L_Kasriel
5.George Soros Jumps Into the Great Gold Bubble Debate with Rogers and Faber- LewRockwell
6.Fed Starting to Unwind Loose Monetary Policy, Could Trigger Secondary Recession- Gary_North
7.Financial Crisis Triggered Shock and Awe Response for Accounting Driven Recovery- Gordon_T_Long
8.Stock Market Unfinished Business From 2009 For 2010- Doug_Wakefield
Weeks Analysis
American Grain Harvest Impact on Agri-Food Prices- 1st Feb 10
Technical Trading Charts for EWZ, UUP, SMH, BAC and WFC- 1st Feb 10
Gold and Silver the Next Rolling Bubble- 1st Feb 10
Are You 100% Sure They Saved the Financial System?- 1st Feb 10
The Collapse of Sovereign Government Bonds The Next Financial Crisis Contagion- 1st Feb 10
If China Sneezes, Wall Street Will Catch A Cold- 1st Feb 10
U.S. Dollar In Jeopardy Of Losing Its Value- 1st Feb 10
Secret Banking Cabal Conspiracy Theory Going Mainstream - 1st Feb 10
Obama’s Junk Economics, Democrats Relinquish the Populist Option to the Republicans- 1st Feb 10
Gold Bugs Short-term Pain But Long-term Gains- 1st Feb 10
Stock Market Trading System on 75% Buy Signal- 1st Feb 10
Stock Market Correction Could be the Start of Something Bigger- 31st Jan 10
Stock Market Sharp Sell-Off Develops Into A Crash- 31st Jan 10
AAPL Update - Steve Jobs, Apple, the iPad, and King Gillette - 31st Jan 10
Gold and Silver Melting Down or Bottoming- 31st Jan 10
Stock Market Dumb Money Still Bullish Despite 7% Sell Off- 31st Jan 10
Gold, Commodity and Stock Markets Are at a Critical Juncture- 31st Jan 10
US GDP: The breakdown- 31st Jan 10 -Vishal_Damor
Gold Sitting on Top of Major Support Level- 31st Jan 10 -Merv_Burak
The 1% Stock Market Crash, a week in review- 31st Jan 10
Fed’s Currency Swap Lines, A BIG deal for the U.S. Dollar- 31st Jan 10
Is The War In Afghanistan About Terror, Or Heroin?- 31st Jan 10
Gold the Only Best Bull Market in Town- 31st Jan 10
Gold’s Ugly Price Chart Across Multiple Currencies- 31st Jan 10
Stock Market Investors Are Last to Get the Return of Risk Aversion - 31st Jan 10
Gold Stock Bugs Screaming Buy Have Lost Money Over the Past Four Years - 31st Jan 10
A Brief Stocks Market Rally Update- 31st Jan 10
Pentagon Confronts Russia In The Baltic Sea- 31st Jan 10
The Fateful Geological Prize Called Haiti - 30th Jan 10
George Soros Jumps Into the Great Gold Bubble Debate with Rogers and Faber- 30th Jan 10
Will a Threatened Euro Affect the Gold Price? Short-term Traders Beware!- 30th Jan 10
The Statistical Economic Recovery has Arrived- 30th Jan 10
Educational ETF’s, Futures & CFD’s Low Risk Trading Setups Explained- 30th Jan 10
What’s a Company's Gold Worth?- 30th Jan 10
Stock Market Plunges Through Thin Ice On Fake U.S. Economy GDP Growth Numbers?- 30th Jan 10
Stock Market Unfinished Business From 2009 For 2010- 29th Jan 10
Gold Will Continue to Glitter in 2010 Despite Market Turbulence- 29th Jan 10
The Coming Debt Cataclysm, Some Investment Opportunities & Defences- 29th Jan 10
Gold's Inflation Bogey, Part II- 29th Jan 10
The China Google Controversy and the Stock Market - 29th Jan 10
This is Like the Great Depression and Worse- 29th Jan 10
Growing Investor Discontent With U.S. Government Economic Solutions ...- 29th Jan 10
Copper, Zinc, Nickel... Impact From Soaring Base Metals Stockpiles- 29th Jan 10
Gold’s China Syndrome- 29th Jan 10
Why the Stock Market Has Fallen, Battle of the Titans, JP Morgan Versus Goldman Sachs - 29th Jan 10
Gold Versus Co2 Bancor, Why Are Gold Bugs Scared?- 29th Jan 10
Banks Under Attack From Washington, The Impact on You- 29th Jan 10
Retracement Not Reversal in S&P Stocks Index- 29th Jan 10
India Monetary Policy Tightens, Read Hawkish and Inflation to Rise- 29th Jan 10
The FDA Ensuring the Next Disaster in the U.S. - 29th Jan 10
AIG Secret Deals Consipracy Starting to Unravel- 29th Jan 10
Russia's Gazprom Angel or Demon? - 29th Jan 10
Stock Market Crash Risk, Geronimo! - 28th Jan 10
Financial Crisis Triggered Shock and Awe Response for Accounting Driven Recovery- 28th Jan 10
Nasdaq Trendline Alert for Stock Index Traders- 28th Jan 10
The Danger behind the Fed's Exceptional Profits- 28th Jan 10
Obama And Earnings Reports Soothe Stock Market Investors Nerves- 28th Jan 10
Chinese Quest for Shortcut to Economic Greatness- 28th Jan 10
Keeping Your Options Open (and Valuing Them)- 28th Jan 10
Paul Volcker Financial Sector Reform Plan Sparks Split Between JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs- 28th Jan 10
Asian Automakers Are in the Driver’s Seat- 28th Jan 10
The Fed FOMC Tango with Gold and U.S. Dollar- 28th Jan 10
Silver Update, Investors Instant Gratification Or Complete Apathy?- 28th Jan 10
U.S. Low Interest Rates Corporate and State Bonds Mad Rush- 28th Jan 10
Gold Stock Bugs Need a Boost?- 28th Jan 10
Stock and Commodities Trading for SP500, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil - 28th Jan 10
Constituents of Commodity Companies Index (CCI) Finally Revealed- 28th Jan 10
Gold Is Going Nowhere But Up- 28th Jan 10
Gold and Silver Stocks Appear to Be Bottoming, Go Long Now?- 27th Jan 10
Geithner Cry's Crocodile Tears at Hearing on AIG Bailout- 27th Jan 10
Barclays Blood Diamond Tells Taxpayers to Go F' Themselves- 27th Jan 10
Gold's Inflation Bogey and Prechter's Stock Market 50 Point Crash- 27th Jan 10
China Funds FXI, GXC, PGJ, HAO Rolling Over- 27th Jan 10
Bernanke's Burn Notice, Why Now? Research Reveals Insight Into Fed Chairman's Popularity - 27th Jan 10
Where Will US Job Growth Come From?- 27th Jan 10
Hedge Fund Investing - 27th Jan 10
Stock Market Investor Fears Over China and Re-regulation- 27th Jan 10
PIMCO's Bill Gross Says Invest in 'Less Levered' Countries- 27th Jan 10
Robert Shiller on Flawed Economic Theory and the U.S. Housing Market Signs of Life- 27th Jan 10
Nouriel Roubini From Davos Says Western Economies Weak Economic Recovery 2010 - 27th Jan 10
Robert Prechter Warns Bear Market Rally is Over - 27th Jan 10
Why the Government Wants to Hijack Your 401(k)- 27th Jan 10
Marc Faber on Sovereign Debt Default Risks and the Real Value of Gold- 27th Jan 10
Rule By The Rich- 27th Jan 10
Stock Market Remains in Sell Mode until 28th Jan - 27th Jan 10 -Jay_DeVincentis
Obama's State of the Union Address 2010 Rhetoric, Economic Euphemisms and Internal Contradictions - 27th Jan 10
What Should We Make of Obama's "Spending Freeze"- 27th Jan 10
Fed Starting to Unwind Loose Monetary Policy, Could Trigger Secondary Recession- 27th Jan 10
China Currency Manipulation Global Trade Imbalances, A World Without Yaun 6.83 - 27th Jan 10
Stock Market Investors 2010 Risk Reward Focus, Calm Seas, Blood in the Water- 26th Jan 10
Saskatchewan's Resources Enriching the World- 26th Jan 10
The Chinese Interest Rates Torture Continues For Stock Markets- 26th Jan 10
Ukraine's Election and the Russian Resurgence- 26th Jan 10
Economic Depression Wealth Preservation, Investing, and Prepping in 2010 - 26th Jan 10
The Nature of Socialism- 26th Jan 10
Social Security “Fixes” Will Compound Existing Economic Problems- 26th Jan 10
Is the Stock Market in Trouble?- 26th Jan 10 -
How Much More “Debt Recovery” can the U.S. Economy Take?- 26th Jan 10
How Wall Street's Stranglehold on the Economy Is Choking Americans- 26th Jan 10
Financial Elite’s Behaviour Has Opened Floodgates for Gold- 26th Jan 10
UK GDP Growth +0.1%, Economy Stagnates in 4th Quarter 2009 - 26th Jan 10
Stock Market Trend Tracking the 45 Day Cycle- 26th Jan 10
Stock Market Bullish Harami Candlestick Price Pattern- 26th Jan 10
Insider's View of the U.S. Real Estate Train Wreck Crash- 25th Jan 10
Illusions of the Age of Keynes- 25th Jan 10
Stock Market Breakdown!- 25th Jan 10
Climate Change, How IPCC 2007 Made The Real Danger Worse- 25th Jan 10
We' The People- 25th Jan 10
U.S. Government On Its Way to Bankruptcy Part1- 25th Jan 10
Gold, Dollar, China, Important 2010 Q&A- 25th Jan 10
Rude Awakening For Stock Market Investors 2010- 25th Jan 10
Will the Velocity of Money Save the U.S. Economy?- 25th Jan 10
Global Economies Debt Crisis, Japan Heading for Currency Crisis- 25th Jan 10
How To Trade Bernanke Re-appointment Decision Either way- 25th Jan 10
The Case for the Commodities Bull Market in 2010 And Beyond- 25th Jan 10
Democracy in Decline, Controlled Markets, Neo-cons Rising and (of course) Gold- 25th Jan 10
How To Stop U.S. Housing Market Foreclosures - 25th Jan 10
Will the Stock Market Rebound from Last Week's Beating? - 25th Jan 10
UK Best and Worst Standard Variable Interest Rate Mortgages- 25th Jan 10
Stock Market Downtrend into Key Reversal Date Low of 28th Jan- 25th Jan 10
Are We In An Economic Depression?- 25th Jan 10
U.S. Dollar Giant Double Top Pattern Implies Bearish Outlook- 25th Jan 10
Stock Market Outlook and Forecast Into Mid 2010- 25th Jan 10
News Feeds
RSS Feeds

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis
Market Oracle FREE Newsletter
Subscribe Now

Most Popular 2009
1.Gld ETF Warning, Tungsten Filled Fake Gold Bars - Rob_Kirby ()
2.Depression 2009 The Largest Train Wreck in Economic History - Darryl_R_Schoon ()
3.Gold Price Forecast 2009 - Nadeem_Walayat ()
4.UK Housing Market Crash and Depression Forecast 2007 to 2012 - Nadeem_Walayat ()
5.UK CPI Inflation, RPI Deflation Forecast 2009 - Nadeem_Walayat ()
6.CAUTION: Stock Market Crash /Collapse Dead Ahead Say Faber, Rogers, Dent and Celente - Mac_Slavo ()
7.Emerging Giants Russia, China, Brazil and India Looming Collapse 2009 - Martin Weiss ()
8.Ten Major Threats Facing the U.S. Dollar in 2009 - Eric_deCarbonnel ()
9. Nouriel Roubini 2009 U.S. GDP Forecasting 40% Home Mortgage Failures? - Andrew_Butter ()
10.Baby Boomers- Your Generation's Crisis Has Arrived - James Quinn ()
11.Stock Market Crash 2009: Fine Tuning DJIA Target To 5,800 - Eric_Chevrette ()
12.US, UK, Eurozone Banks Face Collapse: Global Banking System Insolvent - Mike_Shedlock ()
13.Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 - Nadeem_Walayat ()
14. .Hyperinflation Begining in China and Will Destroy the U.S. Dollar - Eric_deCarbonnel ()
15. Stock Market to Fall AT LEAST Another 40%! - Martin Weiss ()
16.Financial Crisis Worst is Yet to Come, Market Forecasts Into 2015 -Lorimer_Wilson ()
17. Fed Manipulating Market Prices, Gold, Oil and Bonds - Rob_Kirby ()
Most Popular 2008
1. The Great Depression 2008 - It can't happen to us....can it?”
2. The Battle for America Has Begun- Strategic Forecasts
3. UK House Prices Plunge Over the Cliff
4. US Banking System Teetering on the Brink of Collapse
5. US Economy Forecast 2008 - First Recession then Recovery
6. How Safe is My FDIC-Insured Bank Account?
7. Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown:The 12 Steps to Financial Disaster By Nouriel Roubini
Most Popular 2007
1. US Housing Market Crash to result in the Second Great Depression
2. Operation FALCON - The USA is turning into a Police State
3. UK Housing Market Crash of 2007 - 2008 and Steps to Protect Your Wealth
4. US Housing Bubble Meltdown: "Is it too late to get out"?
5. Global Liquidity Crisis when the Credit Boom comes to an End
Most Popular 2006
1. Last Warning! Three-Pronged Collapse ... Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate
2. UK Interest Rate forecast for 2007 - Bank of England to do battle with inflation
3. UK Interest Rates Forecast to rise much higher due to rising Inflation and high Money Supply Growth
4. Emerging Markets outlook for 2007 - India, China, Russia, Eastern Europe and Brazil

Links

Money Forums
Certz
TradingTheCharts
Housing Market Forecasts
Local Issues

The Most Important Investment Report of 2010
How Predictable Are Black Swans? The Black Swan Hunters
InvestorEducation / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Jan 21, 2010 - 12:28 PM

By: Eduardo_Moreno

InvestorEducation

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe invest using the scientific method and tools such as convergent evolution and comparative economic history in order to try to predict black swans. Here is our story:

1-The black swan.

The Black Swan (Cygnus atratus) is a large aquatic bird which breeds mainly in the southeast and southwest regions of Australia.
But the term black swan has also come to mean a highly improbable event with three main characteristics: 1- It is unpredictable. 2- It carries a massive impact. 3- After the fact we concoct an explanation that makes it appear more predictable than it was. Black Swan Events were described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book, The Black Swan. Use of the term a black swan derives from the 17th-century European presumption that 'all swans must be white', because all three european species of swans (the whooper swan (Cygnus cygnus), the mute swan (Cygnus olor), and Bewick's Swan, Cygnus bewickii ) had white feathers. In that context, a black swan was something that was impossible, and could not exist.




However, after the discovery of black swans in Western Australia during the 18th century, the term metamorphosed to connote that a perceived impossibility may later be found to exist. But are really black swans so unpredictable or could an informed observer predict them? In other words, is there anything intrinsic in black swans that make them unpredictable, as Taleb argues, or is it just our lack of relevant information what leads to their unpredictability?

2- Black Swans are predictable.

To make the point, lets take the Black Swan (the bird) and tell a little story about its predictability. What I am trying to tell by this story, is that black swans (all of them, not only the birds) may be more predictable than the current wave of obscurantism promoted by the Nassim Nicholas Talebs of the world wants us to believe. It therefore goes beyond ornithological talk. I will argue that science starts to have tools to predict the future, not only in highly repetitive systems like astronomy, the cicles of the moon or a solar eclipse, but also in systems that seemed more unpredictable just a few years ago, like evolution or economy. For example evolution of Black Swans. Could one search for the information that would lead to the correct prediction of black swans? What does it take for an individual to become a black swan hunter? What type of information is it needed to hunt for black swans?

Obviously, because black swans are events that have not yet taken place, one needs to be able to predict the future. In the case of the Black Swan (the birds) one should be able to predict the evolution of the species. However, most evolutionary scientists assume that the outcomes of evolution are random, trends are little more than drunkard´s walks and most evolutionary products are masterpieces of improvisation. However I will argue, together with Cambridge´s researcher Simon Conway Morris, that evolution is much more predictable than generally assumed. And not only evolution, but the world is also much more predictable than generally assumed. So, as said above, lets start the story of Black Swan predictability and go back to 16th-century Spain. All swans described until now are white, but the explorers have just brought to the King and the Queen of Spain a very different type of swan found in what constitutes modern Chile.

Everybody is puzzled. Have a look at it:

It is the black necked swan, Cygnus melancoryphus. A handful of people, those at the right place at right time, should be by now aware of at least two main points: 1- Some swan feathers can be black. 2- Not all swans are completely white. This should of course raise doubts about the impossibility of black swans. It is a hint that appeared more than hundred years before the discovery of black swans by europeans. But things get even better. The degree of predictability becomes huge thanks to the phenomenon known as convergent evolution. I will next argue that convergent evolution helps to predict the future. 3-What is convergent evolution?

Convergent evolution describes the acquisition of the same biological trait in unrelated animals. For example, birds have thousands of genes. Many genes are involved in pigmentation of the feathers. But one called MC1R plays a crucial role in controlling the type of pigment synthesized by animals, including humans. In particular, high activity of MC1R leads to synthesis of black pigments, whereas medium activity leads to the synthesis of red pigments and lack of activity leads to total lack of pigmentation (i.e., white). Interestingly, mutations in this gene appear in the Black Swan but not in the white swans. And even more interestingly, similar mutations appear in other black birds like black arctic skuas (Stercorarius parasiticus) or even black rock pocket mice. And a similar case happens with the black necked swan, where the same gene is mutated but in a different position, a position that leads to activation of MC1R and that it is also correlated with black color in chickens, quail and bananaquit. An it is even a mutation associated with rare black jaguars! What am I trying to get to? The fact that variations in the same gene are always involved in the creation of black birds is one proof of the power of convergent evolution and the few choices that the world can take to lead to events such as a Black Swan. It suggests that the world is very constrained and solutions are channeled by those constraints.

Of course, the degree to which constraints affects the predictability of the world is the subject of controversy. In his book Wonderful Life, Stephen Jay Gould argues that if the tape of life were re-wound and played back, life would have taken a very different course. Simon Conway Morris counters this argument, arguing that convergence is a dominant force in evolution, and that because the same environmental and physical constraints act on all life, there is an "optimum plan" which life will inevitably evolve towards, and therefore the outcome will be highly predictable. For example, Black Swans can exist and we can even predict which gene (out of thousands) they will mutate to become black.

4-Black swan hunting investment method.

I side with Simon Conway Morris and extend his argument to economic black swans. As mentioned at beguinning of this article, we have been investing for more than four years using the scientific method and tools such as convergent evolution and comparative economic history in order to try to predict black swans (even before they got the name...). We have had returns of more than 100% per year, having predicted the collapse of the spanish housing bubble, the rise of silver and gold and the problems in Greece and Dubai. Of course, past returns do not guarantee future returns, but we are excited and we plan to continue investing using our method of black swan hunting. We give lectures on black swan hunting.

To contact us, please e-mail: emoreno@cnio.es

By Eduardo Moreno-Lampaya

http://blackswanhunters.blogspot.com/

Eduardo Moreno-Lampaya is a private investor, has a PhD in biology and an MBA in administration of technology-based companies.

© 2010 Copyright Eduardo Moreno-Lampaya - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2010 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Post Comment (Moderated)
Subject:
Name:
E-mail address (will not be published):
Comment:

(Note Commenting Issue: If after Submitting you are returned to the Main Index Page then due to site caching your comment has not been accepted. Solution - Click the Browser Back Button to the article page and Press PAGE REFRESH (you should see the message "You are not authorized to carry out this operation") Now re-enter your comment (ignoring the notice) - If all's well then you will remain on the article page after submitting, a moderator will check and authorise the comment. Alternatively EMAIL to comments @ marketoracle.co.uk , quoting the article number.

FREE Deflation Survival GuideFREE Updated 118 Page Independant Investor E-book
The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2010 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.

Terms of Use | Privacy Policy

encontrado por pesquisa no google:


Bolsa Valores
Bovespa, Investir em Ações, Cotação, Dividendos, Crise Mundial, Dólar, BMF
Quer novidades de Salário e Empregos por e-mail?

*

Página Inicial > Axiomas de Zurique, Ações, Cisne Negro, Estratégias

Como investir – estratégia de investimento baseada na Lógica do Cisne Negro
3, fevereiro, 2009
Ir para os comentários Deixar um comentário




Quem leu “Os Axiomas de Zurique” de Max Gunther e não teve uma experiência real com investimentos certamente ficou um pouco perdido com a quantidade de incertezas que o autor joga e com os exemplos engraçadinhos que contradizem coisas que ele acabou de afirmar. Ele deixa a estratégia um pouco vaga, mas coloca saudáveis valores máximos de perda em cada investimento.

Mesmo assim, dá a impressão de que falta explicar algo. E este algo são justamente aquilo que Nassim Nicholas Taleb chama de “A Lógica dos Cisnes Negros“, de seu livro de mesmo nome. A incerteza, os eventos absurdamente improváveis, são justamente esses cisnes negros.

Não vou aqui entrar em detalhes sobre o que seriam esses cisnes negros e por quê eles são chamados assim. A idéia é que você entenda que está sujeito a eventos absolutamente inesperados. Por exemplo, você podia imaginar, no primeiro semestre de 2001, que dois aviões seriam jogados contra as Torres Gêmeas em Manhattan? Você podia imaginar que a Enron, uma das maiores empresas do mundo, seria palco de umas das maiores fraudes da história financeira? Volte a 1995: você poderia imaginar que uma empresa como a Google, que iria ser fundada 3 anos depois, seria uma das maiores empresas do mundo já em 2005?

O que podemos tirar de lição disso é que o mundo é incerto, como Gunther e Taleb colocaram. Absolutamente incerto. Quase que desesperadoramente incerto. Sim, quase, pois Taleb nos mostra um caminho: já que estamos expostos àquilo que ele chama de cisne negro negativo (má sorte, algo como a fraude na Enron e o 11 de Setembro) e àquilo que ele chama de cisne negro positivo (boa sorte, algo como o crescimento do Google), a ideia é que possamos nos proteger dos cisnes negros negativos e aproveitar os cisnes negros positivos. Ou seja, cisnes negros são basicamente eventos de sorte. Boa ou má.
A estratégia
Como não perder

Sendo assim, o que Taleb sugere? Ele sugere que você deixe uma quantia que você não possa perder em algo extremamente seguro, que dificilmente será abalado por um ou vários cisnes negros. No livro, ele sugere títulos da dívida do Tesouro Americano. Como, obviamente, para brasileiros como eu e você, não é uma opção viável comprar títulos do governo daquele país, poderíamos ficar com títulos da dívida brasileiros (não tão seguros assim) ou poupança (mais segura, desde que não apareça um cisne negro como Collor). Ele sugere cerca de 85% do valor aplicado aí. O restante, você usa para o tipo mais especulativo de investimento possível.
Como ganhar

Pensou em Bolsa de Valores? Correto! Ações da Vale, Petrobras, outras grandes? Não! O que você tem que procurar são as ações de empresas menores, aquelas que vão fazer uma oferta pública, ou ações de empresas de baixo volume e liquidez, aquelas que estão expostas a grandes ganhos quando conseguem um contrato grande com o governo ou outra empresa gigante, e que também estão expostas a grandes perdas.

Tais ações estão fora da mira da maioria dos investidores e, no caso da empresa ganhar algum contrato grande, não é incomum ver seu valor se multiplicar em dezenas de vezes o valor de compra, uma vez que isso vai causar um grande impacto no faturamento da empresa. Por outro lado, se a empresa perde algum contrato grande, você pode ver quase todo o seu dinheiro ir para o ralo.

Agora, imagine que você aplique uma quantia pequena (pense em uma quantia pequena que você possa perder, digamos, R$ 3.000,00). Pense que você aplicou isso em 10 empresas, totalizando R$ 30.000,00. 4 delas despencaram, perdendo mais de 90% do valor, o que te fez perder quase R$ 12.000,00. 2 delas perderam, em média, uns 10% do valor. 1 ficou na mesma e outras 2 tiveram um aumento médio de uns 10% do valor. Na soma geral, você está perdendo: você teve 4 cisnes negros negativos, um tremendo azar, e nas outras ficou mais ou menos empatado.


Mas uma delas, uma fabricante de componentes eletrônicos, ganhou um contrato para produzir e vender aparelhos de uma marca famosa no Brasil. Algo que já é um sucesso de vendas mundo afora e que será aqui também. Essa empresa, quando ganhou o contrato, teve perspectivas de aumentar absurdamente seu faturamento e seu lucro, o que fez as ações subirem 6.000% em questão de semanas (não, não é impossível, isso já aconteceu). Neste caso de cisne negro positivo, seus R$ 3.000,00 iniciais viraram R$ 180.000,00!!! Mais que o suficiente para cobrir sua perder de perto de R$ 12.000,00.
Resumo da ópera

Este é um exemplo que mostra quando diversificar é bom. É justamente quando você está numa situação imprevisível, onde você não sabe o que está fazendo ou não conhece o terreno. Ela funciona? Sim, funciona, e bem, porque te permite atingir ganhos muito bons te expondo ao mínimo de riscos. É a estratégia que, segundo Max Gunther, é adotada pelos bancos suíços. Mas não é a única. A estratégia de Warren Buffett, focada, é bem diferente.
Alguns exemplos de variações extremas

Quando se pensa em um cisne negro positivo, Google (Nasdaq:GOOG) certamente vem à mente. As ações foram lançadas ao mercado com agosto de 2004 ao preço de US$ 25 cada, um preço já alto, já que a mídia estava em cima. Menos de um ano depois, valiam US$ 300 cada. E chegaram a US$ 600 em 2008, antes de caírem novamente.

Mas o exemplo acima é extremo de uma empresa que está sob os holofotes da mídia, o que sempre infla o preço. Mas existem grandes exemplos no Brasil. Pense em quem comprou MMXM3 e GFSA3 antes do IPO, por exemplo, multiplicando muitas vezes seu patrimônio. Ou pense no caso da FJTA4 que chegou a valer R$ 0,79 antes da votação do Estatuto do Desarmamento e que, após a falha deste (cisne negro) chegou a valer mais de R$ 15,00 pouco mais de 2 anos depois. Ou, ainda mais extremo, o caso da TELB4 que foi de R$ 0,04 para R$ 0,66 em cerca de 1 mês!

Isso só para ficar em exemplos de ações de primeira linha. Nas ações de pouco volume e liquidez, podem ocorrer variações ainda maiores. O negócio é ficar exposto a essas variações com o mínimo de dinheiro.

Mas lembre-se de uma coisa: em casos de cisnes negros, preços históricos não querem dizer nada. Se você comprar ações de uma dessas empresas, isso pode não ocorrer mais. A ideia, para aproveitar cisnes negros, é diversificar.
Veja também

* A estratégia de Warren Buffett

Posts relacionados:

1. Como investir – estratégia de investimento de Warren Buffett Warren Buffett não gosta de surpresas. Embora acredite em lances...
2. Saiba antes o que é o Mercado para começar a investir em Ações Todos os dias os jornais comentam que o Dow Jones...
3. Curso em Fortaleza (CE) ensina a investir em ações – Fastjob Treinamentos O campo de investimentos vem ganhando um papel importante no...
4. Melhores Ações para Se Investir esta Semana 9 a 15-11-2009 Depois de uma semana instável (semana passada), o UOL preparou...

Quer novidades sobre Salário, Economia e Empregos por e-mail? Clique aqui.

Admin Axiomas de Zurique, Ações, Cisne Negro, Estratégias
Comentários (0) Trackbacks (0) Deixar um comentário Trackback

1. Nenhum comentário ainda.

1. Nenhum trackback ainda.

Nome (obrigatório)
E-Mail (não será publicado) (obrigatório)
Website
Inscrever no feed de comentários
Discipline a sua mente para se tornar um Investidor de muito sucesso Bolsa de Valores de Tóquio tem o pior desempenho da história em 2008

Buscar Bolsa
Navegue por aqui:
Conteúdo em Destaque

* Análise Fundamentalista
* Análise Técnica
* Bovespa
* Empresas
* Estados Unidos
* Indices Econômicos
* Mercado de Ações
* Previsões Econômicas
* Taxa de Juros

Novidades

* FMI quer Melhorar Índices de Emprego e Desemprego
* Shell pode Demitir 1.000 Trabalhadores em 2010
* Mercedes Marcó del Pont assume Banco Central da Argentina
* Serasa indica queda de 0,8% no varejo
* Petrobras quer até 20% de participação no mercado de etanol
* Dívidas da Argentina devem ser pagas com Reservas do Banco Central
* Crise Financeira não afeta Medicina – Setor teve Crescimento em 2009
* Processo de Globalização deve ser Retomado – Economia

obtido por pesquisa no google:

A Lógica do Cisne Negro, de Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Julio Daio Borges

+ de 1200 Acessos
+ 1 Comentário(s)


Black Swann by Carolincik

* A Lógica do Cisne Negro, de Nassim Nicholas Taleb, pela editora Best Seller, ficou mais conhecido por, de uma certa maneira, "prever" a crise do subprime no ano passado. Junto com Nouriel Roubini, o "Dr. Doom", Taleb era um dos que melhor descreviam o cenário apocalíptico em que o mundo mergulhara, oficialmente, a partir de 15 de setembro de 2008. Não sei se fui ler o livro com essa expectativa, mas é bem provável. Na realidade, uma coluna da professora Eliana Cardoso, no Valor — com quem eu me encontrara pessoalmente, por outros motivos —, justamente, indicava que não se tratava de um best-seller oportunista, tentando "fisgar" incautos. E duas coisas me chamaram logo a atenção na contracapa. Primeiro, obviamente, o elogio de Chris "Free" Anderson — que não era nada econômico e classificava Cisne Negro como "uma obra-prima". Também uma citação tirada do próprio texto, contando a história da descoberta dos primeiros cisnes negros na Austrália. Como, na Antiguidade, não se conhecia o continente australiano, havia a certeza de que todos os cisnes eram brancos. Bastou um único cisne negro — no dizer do Taleb — para que milhares de anos de crença, em cisnes exclusivamente brancos, viessem abaixo. Outros "cisnes negros" — na orelha do livro — que me convenceram a lê-lo de imediato: o 11 de Setembro e, claro, o Google.

* Antes de entrar no tema propriamente dito, gostaria de tecer algumas considerações gerais sobre o livro, que está longe de ser técnico, escrito no chamado "economês", ou tido como hermético pelos não versados em ciências exatas. De certa forma, me identifiquei com Nassim Nicholas Taleb porque ele trabalhou no "mercado", mais precisamente em Wall Street, mas conserva um interesse raro por ciências humanas, mais especificamente filosofia, algo difícil de se encontrar em "especialistas" nessa área (ainda que ele deteste a palavra). Eu igualmente trabalhei em bancos, cultivei um gosto por humanidades, apesar da minha formação em engenharia, e, ultimamente, volto a me sentir atraído por ciências econômicas (um dia explico isso aqui). Fora essa "coincidência", digamos assim, Cisne Negro pode ser lido como uma longa conversa, pois, embora seu autor tenha um conceito a apresentar, e a "provar", o livro é, por falta de melhor termo, "circular", recheado de passagens autobiográficas e opiniões bastante pessoais. (Senti identificação, novamente, porque escrever um "tratado" é uma ambição que, às vezes, nutrimos, mas evitar a primeira pessoa, e as "páginas da vida", soa quase desumano no mundo de hoje.)

* O "cisne negro", em uma das muitas definições de Taleb, é um outlier ou, em bom português, um "ponto fora da curva". É um acontecimento, ou uma ocorrência, de extrema raridade, que provoca um impacto violento e para o qual, posteriormente, tendemos a olhar "em retrospecto". Como os atentados de 11 de Setembro ou a ascensão do Google, ou mesmo a criação da internet, os cisnes negros não podem ser previstos, e grande parte de seu impacto reside nisso. Contudo, passado algum tempo, naturalmente construímos explicações que, refazendo as pegadas da História, nos conduzem inevitavelmente a eles. Ou seja: olhando em retrospecto, chegamos a culpar o governo George W. Bush, ou a CIA, ou o FBI, por não haver previsto, e evitado, a queda das torres gêmeas do World Trade Center, mas, naquela época, talvez não houvesse elementos suficientes para que pessoas, ou instituições, agissem nesse sentido. Do mesmo modo, o Google, e a internet, e o iPod, hoje, fazem todo o sentido, mas não eram assim tão óbvios quando apareceram, por isso transformaram tanto nossas vidas, e continuaram nos "impactando" como poucas coisas no nosso dia a dia.

* A importância dos cisnes negros, portanto, fica mais ou menos evidenciada, mas vai muito além. Para Taleb, os cisnes negros "explicam" quase tudo que existe à nossa volta. Eu acrescentaria que são como grandes "pontos de inflexão", que, a exemplo de uma grande descoberta, uma grande personalidade ou um grande movimento, dão outro rumo à História. E Taleb estende o conceito à nossa vida pessoal... Segundo ele, basta olharmos, novamente, em retrospecto e pensar no que motivou a escolha da nossa profissão ou da nossa ocupação atual; a escolha de nossos parceiros; a eleição de nossos colegas de trabalho; nossas mudanças de casa, de cidade ou de país; ou os revezes que sofremos, as decepções ou traições; o nosso súbito enriquecimento ou empobrecimento. São todos cisnes negros. Mudaram o rumo de nossa existência, sem que conseguíssemos prever, impactando-nos definitivamente e nos fazendo construir narrativas que dessem conta do ocorrido.

* Taleb afirma que a natureza humana não foi preparada para assimilar cisnes negros. A fim de que um acontecimento, para nós, faça sentido, tendemos a "forçar uma ligação lógica", como ele diz, para amarrar fatos, através de "flechas de relacionamento" — pois é mais fácil, para nós, lembrar de uma sequência de eventos, logicamente encadeados, do que armazenar ocorrências aparentemente díspares. Assim, por exemplo, são construídos os mitos — que nada mais são que "histórias" que ordenam, e trazem sentido, ao "caos da experiência humana". De acordo com Taleb, o ser humano tem uma "fome por regras". E também uma certa predileção por "histórias compactas" sobre "verdades nuas e cruas". Não espanta a moda dos "romances edificantes", as anedotas contendo lições de moral ou até os cases dos livros de autoajuda. Desde os Evangelhos até os bancos escolares, somos "ensinados" com histórias, exemplos e até contraexemplos.



* O perigo disso tudo é cair no que Taleb chama de "falácia narrativa". Que os cisnes negros são importantes, neste ponto, todos já sabemos — mas se insistirmos na simplificação retrospectiva nunca aprenderemos a tirar proveito deles (sim, Nassim Nicholas Taleb acredita que isso é possível). O cisne negro, segundo outra de suas definições, é justamente o que escapa a toda simplificação. O contrário das famosas "curvas em forma de sino", as gaussianas, ou, em inglês, as bell curves. Afinal, essas "ignoram os grandes desvios"; em vez de lidar com cisnes negros, preferem evitá-los de todo; e, pior de tudo, passam a seus cultores a ilusão de poder "domar as incertezas". Taleb acredita que o número de cisnes negros só vem aumentando desde a revolução industrial, quando o mundo começou a se "complicar". Numa sociedade cada vez mais complexa, como é a nossa da globalização, as ocorrências de cisnes negros são cada mais frequentes — logo, a melhor alternativa não é fugir deles, mas, sim, encará-los de frente.

* Para se adaptar melhor à vida moderna, periodicamente redefinida por cisnes negros, Taleb recomenda o que denomina "prática da incerteza". Começa em tom de galhofa, mas encerra com um fundo de verdade: pirataria, especulação com commodities, jogar profissionalmente, trabalhar para a máfia ou, simplesmente, realizar empreendimentos em série. Taleb divide o mundo entre "Mediocristão" e "Extremistão" — não soam bem em português, talvez pudessem ser melhor traduzidos, mas, basicamente, designam os nomes de dois "países" distintos. A maioria das pessoas prefere viver no Mediocristão: onde vigora a tirania do coletivo, do rotineiro, do óbvio e, sobretudo, do previsível. Já uma minoria escolhe viver no Extremistão: onde reinam o singular, o acidental, o inaudito e, por oposição, o imprevisível. Agora, tente adivinhar em qual dos dois "países" se está melhor equipado para encarar um "cisne negro"? Acontece que viver no Extremistão requer uma resistência pessoal e intelectual, evidentemente, fora do comum. É a "terra" dos grandes artistas, dos grandes descobridores e dos grandes empreendedores. Afinal de contas, para quem empreende de verdade, de pouca serventia é o "planejamento estruturado", valendo mais o "máximo de experimentação" e um ótimo faro para "detectar oportunidades".

* Nassim Nicholas Taleb tem uma certa prevenção contra escolas, em todos os níveis, embora tenha mestrado por Wharton e doutorado pela Universidade de Paris. As escolas, boas ou más, foram criadas para estimular o pensamento, o raciocínio, o esforço intelectual, a resposta mais lógica, porém mais lenta, porque sequencial, e progressiva. Para viver no Extremistão — e consequentemente tirar proveito de cisnes negros —, é preciso, no entanto, estimular a experiência, o ato reflexo, porém mais rápido, o "raciocínio que corre em paralelo", sem que possamos muitas vezes concebê-lo, e mesmo os erros, e, sobretudo, a intuição. Nesse ponto, Taleb se aproxima de Nietzsche, que se rebelava contra o "racionalismo" de Platão. "Racionalizar" nossas experiências pode ser, conceitualmente, muito bonito, mas, sempre que fazemos isso, alguma coisa do fluxo da vida nos escapa. Por isso, Nietzsche exigia a reabilitação de Dionisio (contrastando com Apolo), a reintegração do homem à natureza (contrastando com a civilização) e o amor ao próprio destino (contrastando com a religião). Não conseguiu reverter séculos de filosofia ocidental, mas Taleb, conscientemente ou não, segue pelo mesmo caminho.

* A crise de 2008 foi, efetivamente, um cisne negro, porque pegou desprevenidas as economias de quase todo o mundo desenvolvido. Embora, olhando para trás, houvesse sinais claros de que a bomba do subprime iria explodir, os prejuízos foram retumbantes, e a Europa e os Estados Unidos pagam, até hoje, pelo ocorrido. Por mais incrível que possa parecer, o Brasil, com seu histórico de crises próprias, e de sofrer com "cisnes negros" de outros países, como mais recentemente do México (1994), da Ásia (1997), da Rússia (1998) e da Argentina (2001), foi o último país a entrar e o primeiro a sair da crise do subprime de 2008 (para quem duvida, a indefectível revista Economist confirma). Esse exemplo do Brasil, naturalmente, não consta do livro de Nassim Nicholas Taleb (afinal ele foi originalmente publicado em 2007). Ainda assim, ele mostra uma aplicação prática do conceito de Cisne Negro — que, como vimos, pode servir tanto à História, com "H" maiúsculo, quanto aos fatos mais importantes de nossas vidas. Esse livro foi, decerto, um dos melhores que li neste ano, embora não tenha sido em todos momentos "fácil" e nem "fluído"... E no final dele, se ainda restava alguma dúvida sobre a ideia de Taleb, ele proclamaria cheio de razão: "Lembre-se de que você mesmo é um cisne negro, leitor!"