robertts12

na Bloomberg:



* Home
* News
o
+ Top Headlines
+ Most Popular
+ Exclusive
+ Worldwide
+ Regions
+ Markets
+ Industries
+ Economy
+ Politics
+ Law
+ Environment
+ Science
+ Opinion
+ Muse: Arts, Culture & Spend
+ Sports
+ Bloomberg Markets Magazine
+ Leaders
+ Entrepreneurs
o
+ Davos
* Market Data
o
+ Overview
+ Stocks
+ Stock Futures
+ Currencies
+ Commodities
+ Rates & Bonds
+ ETFs
+ Mutual Funds
+ Economic Calendar
o
+ Forex Trading Videos
* Personal Finance
o
+ News & Videos
+ Calculators
+ Portfolios
* TV
o
+ Live TV
+ Shows
+ Schedules
+ Channel Finder
o
+ The Mentor
* Radio
o
+ Live Radio
+ Shows
+ Schedule
* More
o
+ Video
+ Paul Kedrosky
+ Podcasts
+ Mobile Apps
o
+ Businessweek.com
+ Leadership Connections
o
+ Inside Bloomberg.com
+ Feedback

Bloomberg

* Anywhere
* Professional
* Solutions
* About

* Log in

Related News:

* U.S.

Faber Sees 10% Retreat in S&P 500 Index, Saying U.S. Stocks Are Overbought
By Rita Nazareth and Carol Massar - Jan 25, 2011 7:09 PM GMT-0200

*
*
* inShare0
* More
o Business Exchange
o Buzz up!
o Digg
* Print
* Email

Marc Faber of Marc Faber Ltd

Marc Faber, founder and managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg

Marc Faber, who told investors to buy U.S. stocks in March 2009 before the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index began to rally, said the gauge may drop 10 percent because too many investors are bullish.

“A correction is coming,” Faber said in an interview from Zurich with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” “Equities in the U.S. will go down less than emerging markets.” He predicts a drop of as much as 30 percent for equities in developing countries.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has advanced 134 percent from its low in March 2009, while the S&P 500 jumped 91 percent. Equities gained as central banks kept interest rates near record lows and governments spent trillions of dollars to spur growth. On Nov. 3, the Federal Reserve said it would buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June.

Faber correctly predicted in May 2005 that stocks would make little headway that year. The S&P 500 gained 3 percent. He was less prescient in March 2007, when he said the S&P 500 was more likely to fall than rise because the threats of faster inflation and slower growth persisted. The S&P 500 then climbed 10 percent to its record of 1,565.15 seven months later, and ended the year up 3.5 percent.

Bonds

Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, reiterated his views from a Dec. 30 interview with Bloomberg News when he said that U.S. Treasury bonds are a “suicidal” investment and are likely to decline in the long-term.

After bottoming in December 2008, the 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 3.9859 percent in April on government measures to stimulate the economy. Concern about a second recession in three years sent yields lower through October. Treasuries rose today, pushing yields on 30-year bonds down the most this year, on speculation President Barack Obama will propose a five-year freeze of non-security discretionary spending to help cap record deficits.

“Treasuries are the best place for the next 10 days,” Faber said. “Not for the longer-term”

To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net; Carol Massar at cmassar@blooomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net.

*
*
* inShare0
* More
o Business Exchange
o Buzz up!
o Digg
* Print
* Email

Related News

* U.S.

Sponsored Links
"Subscribe Now & Get Your Free Issue of Bloomberg Markets Magazine "
More Stories

*
Sawiris Says Suleiman Appointment May `Not Be Enough' to End Egypt Protest
*
Dubai Shares Plunge Most in Year, Lead Gulf Drop, on Egypt Risk, Protests
*
Japan wins Asian Cup with 1-0 over Australia
*
Japan's Debt Rating Lowered to AA- by Standard & Poor's; Outlook Is Stable

[Rate These Stories] Rate These StoriesMore News »
Advertisement
Market Snapshot

* U.S.
* Europe
* Asia

Ticker Price Price Delta
Dow 11823.70 -166.13 (-1.39%)
S&P 500 1276.34 -23.20 (-1.79%)
Nasdaq 2686.89 -68.39 (-2.48%)
Ticker Price Price Delta
STOXX 50 2954.13 -35.62 (-1.19%)
FTSE 100 5881.37 -83.71 (-1.40%)
DAX 7102.80 -52.78 (-0.74%)
Ticker Price Price Delta
Nikkei 10360.30 -118.32 (-1.13%)
TOPIX 919.69 -9.97 (-1.07%)
Hang Seng 23617.00 -162.60 (-0.68%)
Stocks on the Move
Most Popular Stories

*
Dubai Shares Fall Most Since May on Egypt Unrest, Pacing Mideast Decline Updated 45 minutes ago
*
Mubarak Names Intelligence Chief Vice President in Step Toward Succession Updated 4 hours ago
*
Payrolls Probably Rose at a Pace Underscoring Fed Concern Over Job Market
*
Wall Street's Collapse to Be Mystery Forever: Jonathan Weil

More Most Popular Stories »
Advertisement
Advertisements
Sponsored Links
Last update: 12:04 AM ET, Jan 26

Bloomberg
[Rate this Page] Rate this Page
Go to the old version of Bloomberg.com
Make the mobile site my default

News
* Exclusive
* Worldwide
* Regions
* Markets
* Industries
* Economy
* Politics
* Law
* Environment
* Science
* Opinion
* Muse: Arts, Culture & Spend
* Sports

Market Data
* Stocks
* Rates & Bonds
* Currencies
* Mutual Funds
* ETFs
* Commodities
* Economic Calendar

* Personal Finance
* TV
* Radio
* Video
* Podcasts
* Personalities
* Keene On Demand
* Mobile
* Leaders
* Technology

More from Bloomberg
* Bloomberg Businessweek
* Business Exchange
* Bloomberg on Twitter
* Bloomberg on Facebook
* Bloomberg Briefs
* Bloomberg Government
* 日本語サイト
* Bloomberg Law
* Bloomberg Link
* Bloomberg Markets Magazine
* Bloomberg New Energy Finance
* Bloomberg Open Symbology
* Bloomberg Press
* Bloomberg Sports
* Bloomberg UTV

Company
* About Bloomberg
* Solutions
* Careers
* Contact Us
* Press Room
* Help
* Sitemap
* Trademarks
* Feedback

©2011 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of Service Privacy Policy Advertising
Unless indicated otherwise, intraday market data is at least 15 minutes delayed.

copiado aqui para melhor visualizar, no site do banco o texto é mais largo que meu monitor.

Global Trends

Emerging Markets Remain Attractive for Investors

Andreas Thomann, Online Publications, Dan Scott, Corporate Communications

13.01.2011 Growth in the emerging market economies continues to outpace that of their developed market peers. According to Stefan Keitel, Chief Investment Officer at Credit Suisse, the outlook remains bright for 2011.



Play video in a new window Play Video
Dan Scott: You've spent a lot of your time traveling and working in the emerging markets. Are consumers as busily shopping in the emerging markets as they are in Switzerland?
Stefan Keitel: Yes, whenever I am in the emerging markets - most recently in the Middle East, and often in Asia - I can definitely feel that the emerging markets are in good shape. There is huge and visible consumer spending in the emerging markets. That's one of the structural advantages of these regions compared to developed regions.

Can we expect in 2011 that emerging financial markets will continue to outperform those in the developed markets?
I would not only focus on 2011. From a tactical standpoint, it could easily be that there will be no visible outperformance of the emerging markets compared to the developed markets. This has to do with the inflation pressure we already experience in the emerging markets such as China or India. Fears of interest rate hikes can also function as a drag on the emerging markets on a temporary basis.

But from a structural standpoint, we're extremely convinced that the emerging market story is definitely not over, as so many structural advantages will lead to a strategic outperformance. Our recommendation would be to buy into phases of neutral or underperformance of the emerging markets.

As an investor, if I've decided that I want to increase my exposure to emerging markets, how do you suggest that I gain exposure?
Definitely by a broad-based approach. We should not talk only about emerging market equities. Given the constructive cycle we are in, equities are definitely the place to be, but we should not forget emerging market debt and. local currencies. Structural advantages such as healthy ratios of debt to GDP, visible foreign currency reserves, fewer banking problems and visible demographic advantages will lead to a strategic outperformance.

What about the currency risk, should investments be hedged?
No, definitely not. When we go for investments into emerging market equities and bonds, we want to give the clear recommendation also to focus on local currencies, because all the structural advantages just described.

What percentage of an overall portfolio should emerging markets make up?
When we talk about our benchmark exposure, we are already at an emerging market quota of more than 10 percent. In normal market cycles, we can easily recommend to go for 20 percent emerging market exposure.

Concerns have started to surface on emerging markets that we're getting a general overheating and in isolated cases, bubbles. What about the overall risk profile for investors?
I would definitely not talk about a bubble in the emerging markets nor about overheating, because there are clear structural elements underpinning the emerging market story. Of course, it could be that with regard to capital flows, this will be a crowded trade for a while. But what's extremely important is that more and more strategic investors are coming to the table. This means that the money is not so fast flowing in and out. Given the fact that many investors now are strategically oriented, this means they are also integrating the emerging markets into the benchmark. We clearly expect that volatility in the emerging markets will be lower compared to the past. So in a broad-based comparison, we expect that the risk return ratio of emerging market investments will further improve in the future.

Investment guru Jim Rogers once said that in order to invest in emerging markets, the best thing you can do is to buy what the emerging market economies are buying themselves, namely commodities. What do you make of that comment?
We are also positive on commodities, because of the current stage of the cycle we are in. We made a strong call to buy real assets such as commodities, given the fact that we are now on a normalization path from a macroeconomic standpoint .The pendulum is swinging away from deflation threats to reflation and then to inflation. We are quite confident that there will be an outperformance of real assets in next decade. So we are structurally positive on commodities and would recommend taking every opportunity in phases of weakness, to extend or to increase exposure into commodities such as industrial metals, soft commodities, energy and precious metals.
Right Column

* Contact

* Contact us
* Press Contacts
* Shareholder Contacts
* Where To Find Us

*



Newsletter
Newsletter
Newsletter
More Articles
More Articles

* Emerging Markets in 2011: Booming With Some Risks
* Credit Suisse Introduces the Emerging Consumer Survey
* Top 10 Investment Ideas for 2011
* Brands as Important Guides in a World of Plenty


In Focus
In Focus
Global Trends

* Global Trends

Emerging Markets in 2011: Booming With Some Risks


Global Trends

* Global Trends

Credit Suisse Introduces the Emerging Consumer Survey


Video

* Video

Emerging Markets Remain Attractive for Investors


Switzerland

* Switzerland

Swiss Retail Sector Optimistic About 2011


Web Services
Web Services
E-mail this page : E-mail this page
Newsletter Newsletter
RSS : RSS
Podcasts : Podcasts
Twitter Twitter
Facebook Facebook


Footer - Credit Suisse Group
Print:

copiei aqui para melhor visualizar, pois no site sempre preciso mover a pagina para a direita e a esquerda para ler.

Global Trends

Emerging Markets in 2011: Booming With Some Risks


18.01.2011 Emerging markets continued to show solid growth and a strong stock market performance in 2010. This article looks at the themes which may shape these markets' investment context in 2011, as well as the potential risks ahead. The themes picked out are general trends in the emerging market universe. It is of course important to note that there are numerous differences between the regions and the individual countries.

Text: Thomas Herrmann, Nora Wassermann and Adelheid von Liechtenstein, Global Economic Research

Theme 1: Capital (in)flows
Despite the recent increase in bond yields, 2011 will continue to be characterized by historically low yields, reflecting the expansionary policy setups in the advanced economies. The growth prospects of the emerging markets and the general pick up in yields and returns imply capital flows into emerging markets. This has already been strongly visible in recent months. In global asset allocations, emerging market assets are still often underrepresented. Rising investor interest should imply ongoing inflows and rising asset prices.
While these capital inflows are generally positive, significant dependence on foreign funding can imply major risks. Firstly, they can be a source of instability if the inflows suddenly reverse. This is a concern for policy makers. Several crises in emerging markets seen over the past decades (such as the Asian crisis in 1997, Russia in 1998, Latin America in the 1990s) were linked to large fluctuations in capital flows. Secondly, the currency appreciation associated with the inflows can be an issue for non-commodity exporters. For non-commodity goods exporters such as South-East Asia's electronic goods exporters, the relative price increase of their exports threatens to erode competitiveness. Because of these two factors, policies to counter strong appreciation are likely to continue (see Theme 2).

Capital inflows in Brazil
Capital inflows in Brazil

enlarge
Theme 2: Policy response to these inflow concerns
Higher growth, output above capacity, tightening labor market conditions and asset price inflation would all imply the need to raise interest rates or tighten monetary policy in a similar fashion. But emerging market policy makers remain reluctant to do this. This reluctance is often linked to the first theme discussed. Media has been full of articles about the "currency war." To shield their currencies from appreciation or to avoid the risk of unwanted volatility in capital flows, many emerging markets have either intervened in the currency markets, refrained from tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates (or even cut rates to lower attractiveness for foreign investors), or introduced or began to discuss capital controls.
Brazil has been the most prominent example, following very strong capital inflows. It introduced a tax on foreign fixed income and equity investment in late 2010. Measures in other countries are being discussed in South Korea and Thailand, for example, and could follow in 2011. Countries affected by strong inflows will only be able to lean against appreciation pressure, but are unlikely to halt the process. Therefore other reform measures to ensure sustained competitiveness will need to be taken.

Emerging market consumption
Emerging market consumption

enlarge
Theme 3: Secular rise of domestic demand continues
In particular, the rising importance of domestic demand remains an important theme, with emerging market consumption now almost exceeding the previously dominant US consumer in US dollar terms. While infrastructure build-up remains a key growth driver and is a prerequisite for future growth, private investment and consumption are also important.

Theme 4: Moving toward greater emerging market interdependence
While the correlation has become slightly less pronounced in some cases, emerging markets cyclical swings are still very much in sync with the major economies' cycles. So the much-discussed decoupling probably is not there yet and will probably never emerge in an ever more integrated global economy. However, cyclical interdependence between emerging markets through trade is increasing and this can help to buffer shocks emanating from the developed economies. China in particular has become more important as a source of demand for the rest of the emerging market world. Intra-emerging-markets trade, also known as "South-South" trade, more than doubled between 1996 and 2010, from 6 percent to 14.4 percent.

Theme 5: Overall growth outperformance in the emerging markets
Putting all of the above themes together, Credit Suisse expects emerging markets to continue to grow more strongly than the advanced economies. Asia is likely to continue to be the fastest growing region within the emerging markets. Within Asia, India might actually outpace China in 2011. This development may be the beginning of a lasting trend.
Following growth moderation in the second half of 2010, momentum in most emerging markets is likely to pick up again going forward. Global economic indicators generally remain positive or even improve. Several factors should support more self-sustaining growth globally: generally expansionary policy setting, firms' cash richness and improving consumer sentiment. The growth outperformance continues to be based on a combination of, and to a varying degree; lower debt, higher possible productivity gains, domestic demand strengthening, generally better demographics and in several countries commodity richness.

What are the risks?

Risk 1: Global economic backdrop deteriorating
While especially the public (and in some countries private) debt issues in developed economies pose structural growth constraints, Credit Suisse does not expect a return to recession. The global recovery should continue without major disruptions, according to the bank's core scenario. However, if a major shock in the major economies occurred, such as major market disruptions or renewed write-downs of banks, emerging markets would suffer as well. Strong capital outflows with bigger market corrections than in the advanced economies could be the consequence.

Risk 2: Emerging market inflation
Despite regional differences, inflation has already become a bigger issue in emerging markets. Currently, this is strongly driven by food prices, as food has a bigger share in the inflation indices than in advanced economies. Growth has been more resilient than in developed economies and in the wake of the recovery, capacity utilization measures have increased strongly. Labor market constraints and wage inflation in China, for example, are also becoming more pronounced.
Core inflation is so far contained, but risks are generally higher in emerging markets than elsewhere. With low or even negative real interest rates, high "liquidity" due to interventions in currency markets and substantial capital inflows (which also tend to spur credit growth), not only goods inflation, but also asset price inflation could become a bigger risk.
Somewhat higher inflation in itself might not be the most pressing concern from an investor's point of view. If, however, policy makers have to react more forcefully, for example by raising interest rates, markets could react very nervously. The destabilizing effects that could stem from asset price inflation and possible asset price busts thereafter are more likely medium term. Again, associated capital flight and banking system problems could emerge as possible consequences.

Risk 3: Domestic and geopolitical issues
There are a number of both domestic and geopolitical political risks, which have the potential to impact economic performance and market developments in the emerging market space. The tensions on the Korean peninsula or a conflict with Iran could move back to the top of the agenda. Tensions with the latter could cause major disruptions for global oil supply, given the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 percent of the oil traded worldwide goes through this "checkpoint," according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Also, trade tensions have already become a more prominent issue, as a result of the "currency war” mentioned in theme 2. The relationship of the two main counterparts of these global imbalances, the US and China, will be particularly important to watch. Our base case is that the free trade will be preserved, but the US Congress' discussions about trade sanctions for China point to associated risks. China's handover of power to a new generation of political leaders in 2012 will continue to be prepared. A commitment to political continuity and especially a continuation of a pro growth stance is likely.

Risk 4: Dutch Disease?
The so-called "Dutch Disease" occurs when commodity exporting countries experience a structural currency appreciation and their export companies (outside the commodity sector) as a consequence struggle to compete with foreign companies. These countries' economies then become "dominated" by commodities, as non-commodity firms fail. Initially, the windfall profits can be large enough for general welfare to improve, but over the longer-term the lack of diversification can constrain their economic growth.