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Viva The V
Ken Fisher, 10.15.09, 11:20 PM EDT
Forbes Magazine dated November 02, 2009
If history repeats, the current V recovery is far from over. Expect another 20%-to-25% gain by January.
More From Ken Fisher

Viva the vrrooom! We're in the midst of a really big and steep V. As detailed in my Feb. 16 column, "Anticipate the V" (and updated in my May 25 column, "Blink and You'll Miss It"), big bear markets are almost always followed by big bull markets in a V-shape pattern. The steeper the descent, the steeper the ascent.

Most investors give too much credence to the theory that prices are rational; they presume that a market collapse must have been justified by serious economic trouble. As a result they presume that we can't have a big bull run after prices crash. History proves that presumption to be false.
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This time the V is almost perfect--so far. As I write, the MSCI All-Country World index is exactly where it was on Sept. 29, 2008. From there to the Mar. 9 bottom was five months and ten days. From the bottom up to here is not quite seven months, a slightly lopsided V.

Note: The V works for the whole world stock market, not necessarily every country's. Any one market, including America's, can take on an odd shape. Always think globally first.

The fundamental force behind every V is always that the last phase of a bear market is driven completely by imploding panicky sentiment rather than the fundamentals people think they're thinking about. The sentiment implosion is a societal, psychological depressed-spring effect that makes the market bounce back as quickly and as far as it went down.

All the while people fret about sucker rallies and expected pullbacks, the V keeps its shape. I described that sequence for the 1930s in my May 25 column. Now take a look at the bear market bottom on Dec. 6, 1974. A year and five months later the stock market was almost exactly where it had been a year and five months before Dec. 6.
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If history repeats, the current V recovery is far from over. If it keeps up for another six to nine months the global stock market will be 20% to 25% higher by Jan.1, 2010. We had a long (16 months) and deep (down 60%) bear market. Now we're getting a big, long bull run. Stay with it, with stocks like these.

Brazil's TAM ( TAM - news - people ) (TAM, 13) has 50% of Brazil's airline market. In developed markets airline stocks are dogs. In emerging markets they're growth stocks. tam should grow about 15% a year yet sells at only eight times my estimate of 2009 earnings, and at only 30% of annual revenue and 2.4 times cash flow (in the sense of net income plus depreciation).

Net Serviços de Comunicação ( NETC - news - people ) (NETC, 12) is Brazil's largest pay-TV provider, with 3 million customers. It also delivers Internet access and phone services. Net will grow with Brazil--and then some. It sells at 15 times my estimate of 2009 earnings.

With similar numbers of customers Canadian Shaw Communications ( SJR - news - people ) (SJR, 18) has a diversified communications business with cable tv, Internet, phone and satellite services. It should grow 12% a year and at 16 times earnings is relatively cheap for a company with low-risk growth. You get a 4.4% dividend yield.

Huaneng Power International ( HNP - news - people ) (HNP, 26) is China's largest nongovernmental electricity generator. It has 40 gigawatts of generating capacity in 17 wholly owned power plants, plus output from partially owned plants, and more power on the way. Power is central to China's growth and Huaneng is central to China's power. At 12 times 2009 earnings, 50% of annual revenue and 90% of book value it's cheap. Expect earnings growth of 15% a year.

Wynn Resorts ( WYNN - news - people ) (WYNN, 66) is among the world's biggest gaming destinations. In 2006 it earned $629 million on $1.4 billion in revenue. Now earnings are crunched for obvious recessionary reasons. In 2010 it should have well over $3 billion in revenue and by 2011 should be earning over $1.5 billion. But the company's market capitalization is $8 billion. You are, in other words, paying less than 6 times plausible 2011 earnings.

Grandma and Grandpa have the dough. With the recession ending they will do what they felt bad about not doing last Christmas--spoiling the heck out of the grandkids. Throughout this recession the toymaker Hasbro ( HAS - news - people ) (HAS, 27) kept the growth up with its endless stream of household names like G.I. Joe, Nerf balls, Play-Doh, Playskool, Transformers and Tonka. It's a classic consumer discretionary stock at a time when consumer discretionary stocks should lead the market. It's cheap at 13 times 2009 earnings and 1.1 times revenue. The yield is 2.9%.

Money manager Ken Fisher's latest book is How to Smell a Rat: The Five Signs of Financial Fraud (John Wiley, 2009). Visit his homepage at www.forbes.com/fisher.

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Petrobras e Vale

Estudos feitos pelo Bastter diariamente, com gráficos, utilizando-se de alguns indicadores técnicos como médias móveis, pivots (topos e fundos) e Análise de Sentimento.
PETROBRAS - PETR4

VENDE TUDO ANTES QUE ACABE!

Se vai subir ou cair eu nunca sei, mas hoje foi uma autêntica liquidação e liquidação de fim de tarde do tipo vende tudo antes que acabe. Caiu e caiu muito após uma onda de queda que vinha desde os 40,09 e entrou volume grande. Marquei no gráfico a última vez que isso aconteceu e muitas vezes uma liquidação forte desta é seguida de recuperação ou por falta de vendedor ou porque os grandes estavam comprando enquanto o pânico tomava conta da sardinhada. Mas prever o futuro eu não aprendi ainda e já chegamos nos 35,20 e o fundo mesmo está no 34. Se perder os 34 com força, não há liquidação que segure e aí fica com podridão fétida do Predador...

Nossa série de topos e fundos mais altos: 28,34 - 32,46 / 31,32 - 34,00 / 30,67 - 37,70 - 34,24 / 40,09. Agora é esperar o próximo fundo que para manter a tendência tem de ser acima dos 34,07 mas já caiu demais e vai ser difícil fazer um topo mais alto em linha reta mesmo que consiga um fundo mais alto...

Ficou bem longe o último topo. Parei de acampar por enquanto...

Suportes: 35,00 - 34,07 - 30,00

Resistências: 36,40 - 37,17 - 38,10

Média Móveis: MM200 em 34,23, já dá para enxergar ela

Candle: Grande Bozu de queda de liquidação que após queda forte sugere fundo

Volatilidade: 30,01%

Gráfico
estudo por Bastter para 22/12/2009
VALE - VALE5

MARTELOU NA NOSSA CABEÇA

Vejam que o desenho de fundo foi lindo, mas isso não adianta nada se o mercado cai. Mercado desenha gráfico e não o contrário. Caiu com vontade mas não perdeu os 40. Enquanto segurar os 40 ainda há esperança, mas a perda dos 40,70 já nega totalmente o martelo e já não é bom negócio. Vamos observar.

Topos e fundos mais altos desde os 27 até os 43,85 . O último fundo está em 37,48 e agora é ver se conseguimos um fundo mais alto para manter a tendência.

Suportes: 40,70 - 40,00 -= 39,00
tirado do site www.bastter.com.br


Resistências: 42,00 - 43,00 - 43,85

Média Móveis: MME200 em 35,25 ainda angulada para cima.

Candle: Candle de queda

Volatilidade: 38,99%

Gráfico
estudo por Bastter para 22/12/2009

Atenção: Este estudo nada mais é do que um estudo. Não reflete as operações verdadeiras do autor e nem sua forma de operar. Os candles são demonstrados a pedido dos leitores pois o autor não os usa em suas decisões. Opere segundo suas próprias convicções pois esta análise apenas reflete uma opinião que como tal sempretirado

esse texto foi recomendado no siliconinvestor, e está no site moneymorning.com

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2,799,900% Gains Starting in December?

Imagine an oil company so small, not a single Wall Street firm covered it. So small, it would have to grow 5,000 times to equal one Exxon. Now imagine this same tiny company discovering 40 billion barrels of oil… Enough oil to drive the firm's market cap up 2,799,900%. Well, you don't have to imagine. Because it's happening right now. For details, please go here now.
December 8, 2009
Three Reasons Commodities Prices Will Continue to Soar in the New Year

By Martin Hutchinson, Contributing Editor, Money Morning
[Editor's Note: This report on commodities is part of our "Outlook 2010" series, which chronicles the global-investing outlook for the new year.]

In a Money Morning column last December, I predicted that "commodities may be due for a recovery in 2009." It's always nice to be right, but I have to say the move in some commodities has surprised me. Just look at the performance figures for the 12-month period that ended in mid-November.

When it comes to commodities, most of 2010 will be a reasonably close repeat of 2009. You may think that sounds dull - until you look at the accompanying chart (see chart below) and realize just how much more there is to go.

Although the rally started at an admittedly low point in January, by mid-November it was very clear that commodities were once again in a major bull market. A few commodities have been left out - coal, natural gas and many foodstuffs have experienced lackluster performance - but many of the others (such as the metals, in particular) have had an exceptional year.

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Robert...The fundamentals are positive for a move upward in the commodoties. For…

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Three Factors That Will Drive Prices
The reasons for this aren't hard to find. Three catalysts in particular figure to keep commodities on their upward trajectory.

First, the U.S. Federal Reserve has kept short-term interest rates close to zero all year, and other central banks around the world have pursued similar policies. Even countries that haven't had significant recessions - such as China - have pursued exceptionally expansionary monetary policies: China's M2 money supply was up 29.4% in the 12 months through October, far above the country's economic growth rate for that period.

All that money had to go somewhere. It hasn't gone into housing - the global housing markets are still bombed out after their earlier excesses. It hasn't gone much into stocks - they have had a very nice rally, but are still well off their all-time highs.

Instead, all the stimulus money has gone into commodities.

Second, while the rest of the world has been mired in recession, China has had a pretty good year, and so has India. In the third quarter, China's gross domestic product (GDP) increased 9.5% over the previous year, and India is expected to post a rise of at least 6%. That has caused soaring demand for raw materials, because lifting the 2.5 billion inhabitants of those countries out of poverty generally requires lots of goods you can drop on your foot.

With sales of 11 million cars and light trucks, China leapfrogged the United States this year to become the world's largest automobile market. China and India show no sign of dropping back into recession. Far from it, in fact.

This escalation in demand is likely to continue. And that will put added pressure on global raw materials supplies. In general, we have plenty of commodities, but opening up new production takes lots of time and money, so rapid demand growth pushes up materials prices.

Third, and last, hedge funds and other speculative investors are piling into commodities. What's more, they are buying not just futures, but physical commodities. The supply of most commodities is a small fraction of the volume of hedge funds outstanding, meaning that prices could shift quite sharply as supply disruptions occur.

Don't forget: While a hedge fund buying commodity futures eventually has to roll its position over into the next fund, a hedge fund buying a tanker full of oil or a freighter full of copper ore is tying up part of even higher prices.

Commodities to Play For Maximum Profit
In virtually any market, in terms of which commodities to go for, there are two key factors to consider: genuine industrial demand and speculator interest.

Given current economic backdrop, a third factor must be considered: How quickly can new supplies be brought on stream?

For some commodities - chiefly gold and oil - ramping up on new supplies is a difficult and lengthy process. Gold production has declined by about 2% in the last few years, in spite of rising prices, and most gold ores are in low concentrations - hence ramping up production is very difficult, whatever the price. The same is more or less true for oil, with the added challenge that many of the best potential fields are in countries run by tinpot dictators, who get greedy when the prices rise, and try to push them up further.

At the other extreme, agricultural commodities are unlikely to see much of a bubble - it's just too easy to farm more land or use better seeds. Price run-ups in agricultural commodities tend to be short-term, caused by bad harvests.

Coal has some upside potential, as does natural gas (to a lesser extent). There is unlikely to be much speculative demand for them, but increasing supply is difficult and demand from China and India is increasing fast.

On balance, the metals are the best bets for upside, together with oil.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said he will keep interest rates around zero "for an extended period." This fits with his record, which has been consistently to have the lowest interest rates possible while prattling incessantly about non-existent deflation.

With interest rates, the bottom line is that Bernanke is likely to keep them at a low level for far longer than he should. When he eventually does start to raise them, he'll do so only grudgingly, at first, even as inflation races away. That has to be good for the commodities market.

At some point, this will all reverse. The world's central bankers will get serious about interest rates, and commodities prices will crash as they did last autumn. However, because the world economy is just staggering out of a deep recession, that's unlikely to happen before the second half of 2010, and maybe not before the early months of 2011.

So, for at least the first half of the new year, commodities and commodity-related stocks look to provide excellent returns. I'd recommend that individual investors look at the major mining companies involved in metals production, as well as those that mine coal.

Just make sure you use a trailing stop - even a broad one of 30% to 40% - because these stocks are volatile. When the commodities market reverses, it may do so quickly.

[Editor's Note: Commodities plays such as those detailed in today's forecast story are just one type of the "hyper-profitable" investment plays that Martin Hutchinson has uncovered for his Permanent Wealth Investor trading service. There are others - and they're just as potentially lucrative. In a new report, in fact, Hutchinson not only uncovers the very best profit plays available today, he guarantees triple-digit gains. For more information, please click here.]

News and Related Story Links:

* Money Morning Special Report:
Hedge Funds Take Direct Stakes in Commodities ... Should We Be Wary?
* Money Morning News Analysis:
The Best Ways to Profit From the Growing Pension Fund Crisis.
* Money Morning "Outlook 2010" Economic Forecast Series:
Why Gold Will Reach a Record $2,000 in 2010

More on this topic (What's this?)
Gold and Oil: Why These Two Commodities Are Set to Blast Higher in 2010 (Investment U, 12/17/09)
Marc Faber: Economy Will Go Bust, Commodities To Rise Sharply, Eventually War (Shocked Investor, 11/26/09)
Gold and Oil – getting ready for a surge in 2010 (Contrarian Profits, 12/18/09)
Five Commodities Are Poised For Big Moves… Are You Ready For Them? (Investment U, 10/13/09)
Read more on Commodities at Wikinvest
2 Responses

1.
Robert | December 10, 2009

And yet, despite the fundamentals that for now would suggest commodities should go higher, we now have a completed Elliott Wave corrective pattern in the commodities and the dollar, and now reversals underway in both, with the biggest wipeout of commodities and most powerful strengthening of the dollar underway for trends that could easily run a couple years or so.
Reply
2.
gel | December 16, 2009

Robert…The fundamentals are positive for a move upward in the commodoties. Forgrt the Elliott wave, as the real wave has yet to evolve, as the expansionary monetary policy is just starting to take effect, and the growth prospects in China and Brazil in their middle classes are still in their infancy.
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Why Gold Will Surpass $2,500
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texto da cnnfn, de 16 de dezembro de 2009

Why cheap oil is here to stay
With oil supplies rising and the economy becoming ever more efficient, a super-spike in prices is looking increasingly unlikely.
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By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer
December 3, 2009: 4:32 AM ET

chart_oil_prices.03.gif
Nukes up close
Nukes up close
South Texas could see the first new nuclear power plant built in the country in 30 years. Most locals love it, but nationwide some are questioning the so-called nuclear renaissance.
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Because oil prices have always been directly related to the strength of the economy, a recovery might have seen headlines like these:

• The recession ends: Get ready for $100 oil

• The economy roars: $140 oil, is there an end in sight?

• Everyone in China buys a Cadillac: World tapped out

But a growing number of experts are saying that you can forget all that. For the next couple of years, they say, oil prices will remain well below $100 a barrel as the economy remains fragile and efficiency measures kick in.

"The world will never run out of oil," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a recent research note, echoing the old logic that the Stone Age didn't end because the world ran out of stone. "If the oil age does end, it likely will be because we become more efficient and simply use less petroleum."

It's this "becoming more efficient" idea that the Deutsche Bank analysts use to predict even lower oil prices in 2010 than now - an average of $65 a barrel next year compared to nearly $80 currently.
'Drill baby, drill'...no more

To get there, they employ a metric known as energy intensity, which basically measures the amount of oil used in relation to the size of the economy. (Keep an eye on this term in the next couple of weeks - countries at the upcoming Copenhagen summit on climate change will use it to try to wiggle out of making any hard commitments on cutting greenhouse gases.)

The energy intensity of the U.S. economy has actually dropped by about 2% a year every year since the early 1980s. In the next couple of years Deutsche Bank expects it to decline by around 3% as people buy more fuel efficient cars and respond in other ways to the high prices of 2004-2008 and as government conservation measures kick in.

With economic growth expected to remain at a sluggish 2.5% or so over the next couple of years, that translates into an actual drop in U.S. oil consumption.

"US oil demand may have already peaked," the note said.

The bank's numbers aren't far off from what the government is saying either.

U.S. oil consumption, which peaked at almost 21 million barrels a day in 2005, is now under 19 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Information Administration.

"The last time we had a decline in consumption of this magnitude was 1979-82," said Tancred Lidderdale, an oil analyst at EIA. U.S. oil demand isn't expected to near 21 million barrels a day again until 2029.
The rest of the world

But what about Chinese demand? Speculators? Geopolitical tensions? Or any one of the myriad reasons cited for rising oil prices?

Chinese economic growth at this quick rate is not sustainable, said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy, an energy brokerage in Stamford, Conn. Besides, he says, the Chinese will likely reduce the energy intensity of their economy even faster than America.
0:00 /2:31Engineering climate change

And by the time hundreds of million of Chinese are buying cars, the fleet could very well be all-electric.

As for speculators, Armstrong said credit tightening is making it harder for them to make the big bets on energy that were seen before the crisis.

And geopolitical flare-ups in oil-rich nations are much less apt to affect prices now that the world has the ability to produce much more oil than it is using. Indeed, this lack of spare capacity was an underlying reason oil prices got so high in 2008. That year, spare capacity hit a low of 1 million barrels a day, a mere tanker load away from demand exceeding supply.

Now that number is almost 4 million barrels a day, and expected to grow to 4.5 million barrels a day by the middle of next year.

"There's so much spare capacity right now," said Armstrong, noting that oil prices in the $70 range are still high enough to insure new supplies are being brought online. "It's very difficult to see prices much higher." To top of page

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