Thursday, December 24, 2009
perspectivas para 2009 conforme fisher
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Viva The V
Ken Fisher, 10.15.09, 11:20 PM EDT
Forbes Magazine dated November 02, 2009
If history repeats, the current V recovery is far from over. Expect another 20%-to-25% gain by January.
More From Ken Fisher
Viva the vrrooom! We're in the midst of a really big and steep V. As detailed in my Feb. 16 column, "Anticipate the V" (and updated in my May 25 column, "Blink and You'll Miss It"), big bear markets are almost always followed by big bull markets in a V-shape pattern. The steeper the descent, the steeper the ascent.
Most investors give too much credence to the theory that prices are rational; they presume that a market collapse must have been justified by serious economic trouble. As a result they presume that we can't have a big bull run after prices crash. History proves that presumption to be false.
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This time the V is almost perfect--so far. As I write, the MSCI All-Country World index is exactly where it was on Sept. 29, 2008. From there to the Mar. 9 bottom was five months and ten days. From the bottom up to here is not quite seven months, a slightly lopsided V.
Note: The V works for the whole world stock market, not necessarily every country's. Any one market, including America's, can take on an odd shape. Always think globally first.
The fundamental force behind every V is always that the last phase of a bear market is driven completely by imploding panicky sentiment rather than the fundamentals people think they're thinking about. The sentiment implosion is a societal, psychological depressed-spring effect that makes the market bounce back as quickly and as far as it went down.
All the while people fret about sucker rallies and expected pullbacks, the V keeps its shape. I described that sequence for the 1930s in my May 25 column. Now take a look at the bear market bottom on Dec. 6, 1974. A year and five months later the stock market was almost exactly where it had been a year and five months before Dec. 6.
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If history repeats, the current V recovery is far from over. If it keeps up for another six to nine months the global stock market will be 20% to 25% higher by Jan.1, 2010. We had a long (16 months) and deep (down 60%) bear market. Now we're getting a big, long bull run. Stay with it, with stocks like these.
Brazil's TAM ( TAM - news - people ) (TAM, 13) has 50% of Brazil's airline market. In developed markets airline stocks are dogs. In emerging markets they're growth stocks. tam should grow about 15% a year yet sells at only eight times my estimate of 2009 earnings, and at only 30% of annual revenue and 2.4 times cash flow (in the sense of net income plus depreciation).
Net Serviços de Comunicação ( NETC - news - people ) (NETC, 12) is Brazil's largest pay-TV provider, with 3 million customers. It also delivers Internet access and phone services. Net will grow with Brazil--and then some. It sells at 15 times my estimate of 2009 earnings.
With similar numbers of customers Canadian Shaw Communications ( SJR - news - people ) (SJR, 18) has a diversified communications business with cable tv, Internet, phone and satellite services. It should grow 12% a year and at 16 times earnings is relatively cheap for a company with low-risk growth. You get a 4.4% dividend yield.
Huaneng Power International ( HNP - news - people ) (HNP, 26) is China's largest nongovernmental electricity generator. It has 40 gigawatts of generating capacity in 17 wholly owned power plants, plus output from partially owned plants, and more power on the way. Power is central to China's growth and Huaneng is central to China's power. At 12 times 2009 earnings, 50% of annual revenue and 90% of book value it's cheap. Expect earnings growth of 15% a year.
Wynn Resorts ( WYNN - news - people ) (WYNN, 66) is among the world's biggest gaming destinations. In 2006 it earned $629 million on $1.4 billion in revenue. Now earnings are crunched for obvious recessionary reasons. In 2010 it should have well over $3 billion in revenue and by 2011 should be earning over $1.5 billion. But the company's market capitalization is $8 billion. You are, in other words, paying less than 6 times plausible 2011 earnings.
Grandma and Grandpa have the dough. With the recession ending they will do what they felt bad about not doing last Christmas--spoiling the heck out of the grandkids. Throughout this recession the toymaker Hasbro ( HAS - news - people ) (HAS, 27) kept the growth up with its endless stream of household names like G.I. Joe, Nerf balls, Play-Doh, Playskool, Transformers and Tonka. It's a classic consumer discretionary stock at a time when consumer discretionary stocks should lead the market. It's cheap at 13 times 2009 earnings and 1.1 times revenue. The yield is 2.9%.
Money manager Ken Fisher's latest book is How to Smell a Rat: The Five Signs of Financial Fraud (John Wiley, 2009). Visit his homepage at www.forbes.com/fisher.
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Viva The V
Ken Fisher, 10.15.09, 11:20 PM EDT
Forbes Magazine dated November 02, 2009
If history repeats, the current V recovery is far from over. Expect another 20%-to-25% gain by January.
More From Ken Fisher
Viva the vrrooom! We're in the midst of a really big and steep V. As detailed in my Feb. 16 column, "Anticipate the V" (and updated in my May 25 column, "Blink and You'll Miss It"), big bear markets are almost always followed by big bull markets in a V-shape pattern. The steeper the descent, the steeper the ascent.
Most investors give too much credence to the theory that prices are rational; they presume that a market collapse must have been justified by serious economic trouble. As a result they presume that we can't have a big bull run after prices crash. History proves that presumption to be false.
Article Controls
Emailemail
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imagedel.icio.us
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This time the V is almost perfect--so far. As I write, the MSCI All-Country World index is exactly where it was on Sept. 29, 2008. From there to the Mar. 9 bottom was five months and ten days. From the bottom up to here is not quite seven months, a slightly lopsided V.
Note: The V works for the whole world stock market, not necessarily every country's. Any one market, including America's, can take on an odd shape. Always think globally first.
The fundamental force behind every V is always that the last phase of a bear market is driven completely by imploding panicky sentiment rather than the fundamentals people think they're thinking about. The sentiment implosion is a societal, psychological depressed-spring effect that makes the market bounce back as quickly and as far as it went down.
All the while people fret about sucker rallies and expected pullbacks, the V keeps its shape. I described that sequence for the 1930s in my May 25 column. Now take a look at the bear market bottom on Dec. 6, 1974. A year and five months later the stock market was almost exactly where it had been a year and five months before Dec. 6.
pic
Featured Content
* 200 Best Small Companies
* The 10 Best Places to Retire Abroad
* Finding the Next Epidemic Before It Kills
* Bad News: Treasury Interest Rates Are Falling
* Complete Contents
Special Offer
* Free Trial Issue of Forbes
pic
Other Publications
* Forbes Asia Magazine
* ForbesLife Magazine
*
* Publications
If history repeats, the current V recovery is far from over. If it keeps up for another six to nine months the global stock market will be 20% to 25% higher by Jan.1, 2010. We had a long (16 months) and deep (down 60%) bear market. Now we're getting a big, long bull run. Stay with it, with stocks like these.
Brazil's TAM ( TAM - news - people ) (TAM, 13) has 50% of Brazil's airline market. In developed markets airline stocks are dogs. In emerging markets they're growth stocks. tam should grow about 15% a year yet sells at only eight times my estimate of 2009 earnings, and at only 30% of annual revenue and 2.4 times cash flow (in the sense of net income plus depreciation).
Net Serviços de Comunicação ( NETC - news - people ) (NETC, 12) is Brazil's largest pay-TV provider, with 3 million customers. It also delivers Internet access and phone services. Net will grow with Brazil--and then some. It sells at 15 times my estimate of 2009 earnings.
With similar numbers of customers Canadian Shaw Communications ( SJR - news - people ) (SJR, 18) has a diversified communications business with cable tv, Internet, phone and satellite services. It should grow 12% a year and at 16 times earnings is relatively cheap for a company with low-risk growth. You get a 4.4% dividend yield.
Huaneng Power International ( HNP - news - people ) (HNP, 26) is China's largest nongovernmental electricity generator. It has 40 gigawatts of generating capacity in 17 wholly owned power plants, plus output from partially owned plants, and more power on the way. Power is central to China's growth and Huaneng is central to China's power. At 12 times 2009 earnings, 50% of annual revenue and 90% of book value it's cheap. Expect earnings growth of 15% a year.
Wynn Resorts ( WYNN - news - people ) (WYNN, 66) is among the world's biggest gaming destinations. In 2006 it earned $629 million on $1.4 billion in revenue. Now earnings are crunched for obvious recessionary reasons. In 2010 it should have well over $3 billion in revenue and by 2011 should be earning over $1.5 billion. But the company's market capitalization is $8 billion. You are, in other words, paying less than 6 times plausible 2011 earnings.
Grandma and Grandpa have the dough. With the recession ending they will do what they felt bad about not doing last Christmas--spoiling the heck out of the grandkids. Throughout this recession the toymaker Hasbro ( HAS - news - people ) (HAS, 27) kept the growth up with its endless stream of household names like G.I. Joe, Nerf balls, Play-Doh, Playskool, Transformers and Tonka. It's a classic consumer discretionary stock at a time when consumer discretionary stocks should lead the market. It's cheap at 13 times 2009 earnings and 1.1 times revenue. The yield is 2.9%.
Money manager Ken Fisher's latest book is How to Smell a Rat: The Five Signs of Financial Fraud (John Wiley, 2009). Visit his homepage at www.forbes.com/fisher.
Special Offer: Free Trial Issue of Forbes
*
Get Stories By Email
Select Topics:
o
Huaneng Power International
Shaw Communications
Net Serviços de Comunicação
Hasbro
Wynn
stocks
brazil
fisher
Not a member yet?
Join Now!Already a member? Log InReceive Special Offers?FAQ |Terms & Conditions | Privacy Policy
*
ADVERTISEMENT
* Content Management Software
* Email Marketing Software
* Project Management Software
* Accounting Software
* eCommerce Software
* Help Desk Software
>> Browse All Directories
Most Popular
1. The Weekly Layoff Report: Tough Times At Ford | Story
2. The World's Billionaires | Story
3. 2010's Economic Forecast | Video
4. Full List: America's Costliest Cities | Story
5. A Good Year For Gold Bugs | Video
6. College Football's Most Valuable Teams | Story
7. Betting The House On China | Video
8. Full List: Cities Where Homes Are Losing Most Value | Story
9. Inside An American Billionaire's Castle | Video
10. Billionaires' Dream Green Car | Video
SitemapHelpContact UsInvestment NewslettersForbes ConferencesForbes Magazines
Ad Information Forbes.com Mobile RSS Reprints/Permissions Subscriber Services
Privacy Statement Terms, Conditions and Notices
2009 Forbes.com LLC™ All Rights Reserved
Dow Jones industrial average, Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 indexes are real time and are powered by Xignite. All other indexes and commodities are delayed at least 15 minutes. All pricing is automatically refreshed every five seconds for the first two minutes the page is open, refreshed every 10 seconds for the third minute the page is open, and refreshed every 15 seconds thereafter.
# posted by robertts12 @ 5:10 PM 
