Wednesday, August 12, 2009
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Thursday, August 13, 2009 12:19 AM
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Published 08/10/2009 by Clusterstock
Iron Ore Spike Will Squeeze The Steelmakers
cargo ship 3The nascent iron ore swaps market implies that iron ore prices could stay elevated for the foreseeable future, as per recent data from ICAP. Most recently China-related prices have surged to new highs.
This is good news for major ore producers such as Vale, Rio Tinto, and BHP, and not so good news for Chinese steelmakers.
The Steel Index daily iron ore price reference price reached US$104.1 per dry metric tonne on Friday. The price, published daily for 62% Fe content fines delivered China, and has surged upward, increasing by 5.0% on yesterday and 9.2% over the week. This is the highest level since the index was first published on 17th November 2008.
Yet despite this rather bullish outlook for the iron ore market, the media-darling Baltic Dry Index, an index for ships which carry bulk commodities such as iron ore, lost almost a fifth of its value in just the last week. And freight-forward agreements (FFA's) point to a 19% decline in bulk rates by year-end.
“The Chinese have backed off and it’s starting to show in the number of shipments this month,” Gavin Durrell, a Cape Town-based official at Island View Shipping SA, Africa’s biggest commodities shipping line, said by phone today. “Iron ore and coal seem to be slowing down.” ... Derivatives betting on the Baltic Exchange’s future assessments fell for a third day, indicating the declining spot market is causing traders’ future expectations to deteriorate.
While at first blush a negative shipping market seems at odds with a positive ore market, there is a reason why iron ore prices could remain strong even while the rates to ship iron ore and other dry bulk commodities continue to fall. This is because the larger concern for the dry bulk market currently is in regards to oversupply of new ships coming online due to new deliveries rather than a drop in long-term iron ore demand growth.
So while A) lower dry bulk rates implied by FFA's should be at least noted and B) iron ore swaps should be taken with a grain of salt given that they are relatively new, falling dry bulk rates still shouldn't be of overwhelming concern to those who are bullish on the base metal.
In fact, cheaper ore shipping, caused by over-supply of ships rather than lack of ore demand, could nicely make the all-in cost of ore lower, all else being equal. And in fact, while dry bulk shippers may be headed for stormy seas, the long-term argument for upward commodity price pressure remains very much intact.
...barring economic disaster in large emerging markets, an army of consumers competing for raw materials will continue to emerge. Residual hopes of simply reverting to previous consumption patterns in the U.S. are misguided. Another bout of price spikes will focus minds eventually.
Join the conversation about this story »
See Also:
Rio Tinto Accused Of Massive Fraud And Espionage In ChinaCareful! Shipping Rates Show Signs Of Speculative ExcessMore Good News From Crude, Shipping Prices?
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First Reported 08/11/2009 - Updated 8 hours ago - 19 Documents (in Conflicts & Crime)
Rio Tinto provides third update on Shanghai employees
Rio Tinto has been advised that the Chinese authorities have announced the grounds for the arrest of the four Rio Tinto Shanghai employees who have been detained.While Rio Tinto understands that no formal charges have been laid, an arrest warrant has ... [Your Industry News - 8 hours ago]
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First Reported 08/10/2009 - Updated 08/11/2009 - 11 Documents
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By James Grubel Canberra Shares in global mining house Rio Tinto fell more than 3 percent yesterday after a Chinese magazine published additional spying allegations against the company. Rio Tinto's shares fell 3.57 percent to 23.35 (R313) in London. Rio ... [Business Report - 08/11/2009]
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First Reported 2 hours ago - Updated 2 hours ago - 1 Documents (in Internet & IT)
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First Reported 08/11/2009 - Updated 08/11/2009 - 1 Documents (in Conflicts & Crime)
Four Rio Tinto employees arrested in China
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First Reported 08/10/2009 - Updated 08/10/2009 - 1 Documents (in Environment)
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First Reported 18 hours ago - Updated 18 hours ago - 1 Documents
Rio Tinto PLC - Click to view image in its original context
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First Reported 22 hours ago - Updated 22 hours ago - 1 Documents (in Conflicts & Crime)
Prosecutors Charge Rio Tinto Employees
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First Reported 9 hours ago - Updated 9 hours ago - 1 Documents
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First Reported 08/10/2009 - Updated 08/10/2009 - 1 Documents (in Conflicts & Crime)
Rio Tinto 'spied for years': China
For six years, these economic spies have curried favour, bribed and spied for information.Article on Baomi.orgChina's state secrets agency has accused mining giant Rio Tinto of spying on Chinese companies for six years, saying the espionage caused 'tremendous ... [LiveNews - 08/10/2009]
Entities:Rio Tinto PLC, Bribery, China, Allegation
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China Charges 4 Rio Tinto Employees, but Backs Off [DealBook - 14 hours ago]
China formally arrested an Australian citizen and three other employees of the British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto on suspicions of commercial bribery and ...
China Says $100 Billion Was Bilked by Rio Tinto [DealBook - 08/10/2009]
China said it had evidence showing that for at least six years, employees working for the British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto engaged in commercial espionage, ...
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Filed under: Rio Tinto plc ADS (RTP)Early this morning, Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) found itself facing new allegations in the arrest of some of its employees in China. ...
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China formally arrests Rio staff [Reuters Video: Business - 13 hours ago]
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Thursday, August 13, 2009 12:19 AM
Give Feedback Identify Entity Request Content
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Published 08/10/2009 by Clusterstock
Iron Ore Spike Will Squeeze The Steelmakers
cargo ship 3The nascent iron ore swaps market implies that iron ore prices could stay elevated for the foreseeable future, as per recent data from ICAP. Most recently China-related prices have surged to new highs.
This is good news for major ore producers such as Vale, Rio Tinto, and BHP, and not so good news for Chinese steelmakers.
The Steel Index daily iron ore price reference price reached US$104.1 per dry metric tonne on Friday. The price, published daily for 62% Fe content fines delivered China, and has surged upward, increasing by 5.0% on yesterday and 9.2% over the week. This is the highest level since the index was first published on 17th November 2008.
Yet despite this rather bullish outlook for the iron ore market, the media-darling Baltic Dry Index, an index for ships which carry bulk commodities such as iron ore, lost almost a fifth of its value in just the last week. And freight-forward agreements (FFA's) point to a 19% decline in bulk rates by year-end.
“The Chinese have backed off and it’s starting to show in the number of shipments this month,” Gavin Durrell, a Cape Town-based official at Island View Shipping SA, Africa’s biggest commodities shipping line, said by phone today. “Iron ore and coal seem to be slowing down.” ... Derivatives betting on the Baltic Exchange’s future assessments fell for a third day, indicating the declining spot market is causing traders’ future expectations to deteriorate.
While at first blush a negative shipping market seems at odds with a positive ore market, there is a reason why iron ore prices could remain strong even while the rates to ship iron ore and other dry bulk commodities continue to fall. This is because the larger concern for the dry bulk market currently is in regards to oversupply of new ships coming online due to new deliveries rather than a drop in long-term iron ore demand growth.
So while A) lower dry bulk rates implied by FFA's should be at least noted and B) iron ore swaps should be taken with a grain of salt given that they are relatively new, falling dry bulk rates still shouldn't be of overwhelming concern to those who are bullish on the base metal.
In fact, cheaper ore shipping, caused by over-supply of ships rather than lack of ore demand, could nicely make the all-in cost of ore lower, all else being equal. And in fact, while dry bulk shippers may be headed for stormy seas, the long-term argument for upward commodity price pressure remains very much intact.
...barring economic disaster in large emerging markets, an army of consumers competing for raw materials will continue to emerge. Residual hopes of simply reverting to previous consumption patterns in the U.S. are misguided. Another bout of price spikes will focus minds eventually.
Join the conversation about this story »
See Also:
Rio Tinto Accused Of Massive Fraud And Espionage In ChinaCareful! Shipping Rates Show Signs Of Speculative ExcessMore Good News From Crude, Shipping Prices?
READ FULL ARTICLE
There are no more reports on this story yet.
Ads by Google
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Standard Bank - Bank internationally and in Africa with representation in 30 countries www.standardbank.com
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First Reported 08/11/2009 - Updated 8 hours ago - 19 Documents (in Conflicts & Crime)
Rio Tinto provides third update on Shanghai employees
Rio Tinto has been advised that the Chinese authorities have announced the grounds for the arrest of the four Rio Tinto Shanghai employees who have been detained.While Rio Tinto understands that no formal charges have been laid, an arrest warrant has ... [Your Industry News - 8 hours ago]
Entities:Rio Tinto PLC, Shanghai, Criminal Law, Arrest Warrant, Allegation
First Reported 08/10/2009 - Updated 08/11/2009 - 11 Documents
Further spying report knocks Rio Tinto
By James Grubel Canberra Shares in global mining house Rio Tinto fell more than 3 percent yesterday after a Chinese magazine published additional spying allegations against the company. Rio Tinto's shares fell 3.57 percent to 23.35 (R313) in London. Rio ... [Business Report - 08/11/2009]
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First Reported 8 hours ago - Updated 3 hours ago - 2 Documents
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The revelation that the miner's detainees in China may face lesser charges of bribery and obtaining trade secrets should be heartening ... [FT.com - Companies UK - 3 hours ago]
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First Reported 2 hours ago - Updated 2 hours ago - 1 Documents (in Internet & IT)
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First Reported 08/11/2009 - Updated 08/11/2009 - 1 Documents (in Conflicts & Crime)
Four Rio Tinto employees arrested in China
BEIJINGFour employees of the Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto Ltd. have been arrested on charges of trade secrets infringement and bribery, according to a statement of China's Supreme People's Procuratorate late Tuesday.They included Stern Hu, ... [CHINAdaily - 08/11/2009]
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First Reported 08/10/2009 - Updated 08/10/2009 - 1 Documents (in Environment)
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First Reported 18 hours ago - Updated 18 hours ago - 1 Documents
Rio Tinto PLC - Click to view image in its original context
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CHART Rio Tinto ST: target 1910
Create, manage and set alerts for up to 5 PortfoliosRead the latest Market NewsReceive the weekly Morningstar newsletterReceive the daily equities and markets Morningstar newsletter ... [Morningstar UK - 18 hours ago]
Entities:Rio Tinto PLC
First Reported 22 hours ago - Updated 22 hours ago - 1 Documents (in Conflicts & Crime)
Prosecutors Charge Rio Tinto Employees
Chinese prosecutors formally arrested four employees of mining giant Rio Tinto, on suspicion of violating commercial secrets and taking bribes, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported. ... [WSJ.com: What's News Asia - 22 hours ago]
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First Reported 9 hours ago - Updated 9 hours ago - 1 Documents
Rio Tinto
Companies don't normally cheer a downgrade. But the revelation that Rio Tinto's detainees in China may face lesser charges of bribery and obtaining trade secrets – should be heartening ... [FT.com - Lex - 9 hours ago]
Entities:Rio Tinto PLC, Bribery, China
First Reported 08/10/2009 - Updated 08/10/2009 - 1 Documents (in Conflicts & Crime)
Rio Tinto 'spied for years': China
For six years, these economic spies have curried favour, bribed and spied for information.Article on Baomi.orgChina's state secrets agency has accused mining giant Rio Tinto of spying on Chinese companies for six years, saying the espionage caused 'tremendous ... [LiveNews - 08/10/2009]
Entities:Rio Tinto PLC, Bribery, China, Allegation
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China Charges 4 Rio Tinto Employees, but Backs Off [DealBook - 14 hours ago]
China formally arrested an Australian citizen and three other employees of the British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto on suspicions of commercial bribery and ...
China Says $100 Billion Was Bilked by Rio Tinto [DealBook - 08/10/2009]
China said it had evidence showing that for at least six years, employees working for the British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto engaged in commercial espionage, ...
More trouble for Rio Tinto in China [BloggingStocks - 08/10/2009]
Filed under: Rio Tinto plc ADS (RTP)Early this morning, Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) found itself facing new allegations in the arrest of some of its employees in China. ...
China v. Rio Tinto gets stranger and stranger [The Deal.com - 08/10/2009]
Considering China's importance to the global economy, it's amazing how little most of us know about how things really work there. Current case in point: The posting ...
Rio Tinto Says China Hasn't Backed Up Allegations [DealBook - 08/11/2009]
Rio Tinto said it had yet to be presented with any evidence to support the detention of four of its China-based staff on suspicions of stealing state secrets. ...
1 2 3 4
Audio/Video
sort by: Date | Relevance
China formally arrests Rio staff [Reuters Video: Business - 13 hours ago]
The Coracle Dry Cargo Chartering Podcast [ShippingPodcasts.com - 08/04/2009]
The Coracle Dry Cargo Chartering Podcast [ShippingPodcasts.com - 08/04/2009]
The Coracle Dry Cargo Chartering Podcast [ShippingPodcasts.com - 08/08/2009]
The Coracle Dry Cargo Chartering Podcast [ShippingPodcasts.com - 08/08/2009]
1
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# posted by robertts12 @ 4:24 PM 
