Wednesday, March 17, 2010
outro texto do banco suiço
texto sobre o que a historia pode nos ensinar, copiado aqui para melhor visualização, do cre dit suis se.
How Investors Can Learn From History
Michael O'Sullivan, Head of Equity Research UK, Richard Kersley, Head of Global Research Product
11.02.2010 Stock markets often seem to move in mysterious ways, especially in times of uncertainty. The Credit Suisse Investment Returns Yearbook brings some light into the mystery by analyzing the equity and bond returns in 19 countries, over a period of more than 100 years. The study is the result of a collaboration between the Credit Suisse Research Institute and the London Business School.
Related Links:
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2010
The volatility in financial markets since 2007 has at times been the most extreme in eighty years and in general has lead both private and institutional investors to search for indicators and research tools that will give a sense of where markets may go in the future. Indeed, taking 2009 as an example, where equity markets fell by over 25 percent in the first two months of the year and then embarked on a spectacular rally, it is understandable that the outlook for 2010 and beyond is still uncertain.
In Search of a Long-Run Perspective
In this context, one research project that helps bring a sense of perspective here is the Credit Suisse Investment Returns Yearbook, which is published by the Credit Suisse Research Institute in collaboration with Professors Paul Marsh and Elroy Dimson of the London Business School. The Yearbook is based on an extensive database of equity and bond returns that reaches back over 100 years and spans 19 countries (Finland and New Zealand have been added this year). In this way, the Yearbook helps to put into long-run perspective the current outlook for asset prices at a time of global economic recovery and high levels of country indebtedness. In addition it allows us to take the measure of the Credit Crisis by comparison to other turbulent periods such as the 1930's and 1970's.
Equities Beat Bonds Over the Long-Term
Granted the size and breadth of the data collected by Professors Dimson and Marsh, this is an extensive and global analysis that goes beyond what can be contained in this Yearbook, so an accompanying volume called the Global Investment Returns Sourcebook contains detailed tables, charts, listings, background, sources and references for every country.
Looking ahead through 2010 we believe that the analysis of equity risk and bond maturity premia in the Yearbook is all the more relevant to investors as valuations, volatility and the business cycle begin to approach more 'normal' levels. Going back to 1900, annualized real returns for world equities have outperformed bonds by close to 3.4 percent, and we feel that is a good guide to the levels of risk premia we are likely to see in coming years.
Will Emerging Markets Outperform?
More specifically, in the context of the already strong growth in Emerging markets and the rebuilding of developed economies two articles by Professors Dimson and Marsh examine firstly what kinds of return and risk levels should we expect from Emerging market equities and secondly what the relationship between stock returns and economic growth is.
While Emerging market equity returns in 2010 were spectacular, our analysis suggests that through history Emerging market returns have been closer to developed markets than many investors would now expect. The crucial issue in our view is the extent to which Emerging markets have undergone a structural improvement in terms of their riskiness and the levels of economic growth they now enjoy.
Markets Tend to Rebound as Economies Heal
The second article in the Yearbook helps to shed some light here. While we observe a positive correlation between long-term economic growth and stock returns, per capita GDP growth has a negative correlation with both stock returns and dividend growth. If anything stock market moves are a much better indicator of future GDP growth. In fact, an investment strategy of investing in countries that have shown weakness in economic growth has historically earned high returns.
US Equities Might Profit from Globalization
In addition, the Yearbook contains an assessment by Jonathan Wilmot, Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist for Investment Banking at Credit Suisse, of the fundamental outlook for the US stock market in the context of a globalised world. He notes that despite the impact of the credit crisis the US market is nearly three times bigger than the Emerging market universe in free float terms and is strongly linked to emerging world growth as nearly a quarter of total US profits and about 30 percent of S&P 500 sales are generated abroad. He concludes that the outlook for US equities is positive, given continuing globalization, emerging world growth and rapid technological change.
The articles and country profiles in the Yearbook make for fascinating reading and we hope that it helps to guide readers through still challenging markets. The Yearbook is now one of a number of regular publications from the Credit Suisse Research Institute, which links the internal resources of our extensive research teams with world-class external research.
How Investors Can Learn From History
Michael O'Sullivan, Head of Equity Research UK, Richard Kersley, Head of Global Research Product
11.02.2010 Stock markets often seem to move in mysterious ways, especially in times of uncertainty. The Credit Suisse Investment Returns Yearbook brings some light into the mystery by analyzing the equity and bond returns in 19 countries, over a period of more than 100 years. The study is the result of a collaboration between the Credit Suisse Research Institute and the London Business School.
Related Links:
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2010
The volatility in financial markets since 2007 has at times been the most extreme in eighty years and in general has lead both private and institutional investors to search for indicators and research tools that will give a sense of where markets may go in the future. Indeed, taking 2009 as an example, where equity markets fell by over 25 percent in the first two months of the year and then embarked on a spectacular rally, it is understandable that the outlook for 2010 and beyond is still uncertain.
In Search of a Long-Run Perspective
In this context, one research project that helps bring a sense of perspective here is the Credit Suisse Investment Returns Yearbook, which is published by the Credit Suisse Research Institute in collaboration with Professors Paul Marsh and Elroy Dimson of the London Business School. The Yearbook is based on an extensive database of equity and bond returns that reaches back over 100 years and spans 19 countries (Finland and New Zealand have been added this year). In this way, the Yearbook helps to put into long-run perspective the current outlook for asset prices at a time of global economic recovery and high levels of country indebtedness. In addition it allows us to take the measure of the Credit Crisis by comparison to other turbulent periods such as the 1930's and 1970's.
Equities Beat Bonds Over the Long-Term
Granted the size and breadth of the data collected by Professors Dimson and Marsh, this is an extensive and global analysis that goes beyond what can be contained in this Yearbook, so an accompanying volume called the Global Investment Returns Sourcebook contains detailed tables, charts, listings, background, sources and references for every country.
Looking ahead through 2010 we believe that the analysis of equity risk and bond maturity premia in the Yearbook is all the more relevant to investors as valuations, volatility and the business cycle begin to approach more 'normal' levels. Going back to 1900, annualized real returns for world equities have outperformed bonds by close to 3.4 percent, and we feel that is a good guide to the levels of risk premia we are likely to see in coming years.
Will Emerging Markets Outperform?
More specifically, in the context of the already strong growth in Emerging markets and the rebuilding of developed economies two articles by Professors Dimson and Marsh examine firstly what kinds of return and risk levels should we expect from Emerging market equities and secondly what the relationship between stock returns and economic growth is.
While Emerging market equity returns in 2010 were spectacular, our analysis suggests that through history Emerging market returns have been closer to developed markets than many investors would now expect. The crucial issue in our view is the extent to which Emerging markets have undergone a structural improvement in terms of their riskiness and the levels of economic growth they now enjoy.
Markets Tend to Rebound as Economies Heal
The second article in the Yearbook helps to shed some light here. While we observe a positive correlation between long-term economic growth and stock returns, per capita GDP growth has a negative correlation with both stock returns and dividend growth. If anything stock market moves are a much better indicator of future GDP growth. In fact, an investment strategy of investing in countries that have shown weakness in economic growth has historically earned high returns.
US Equities Might Profit from Globalization
In addition, the Yearbook contains an assessment by Jonathan Wilmot, Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist for Investment Banking at Credit Suisse, of the fundamental outlook for the US stock market in the context of a globalised world. He notes that despite the impact of the credit crisis the US market is nearly three times bigger than the Emerging market universe in free float terms and is strongly linked to emerging world growth as nearly a quarter of total US profits and about 30 percent of S&P 500 sales are generated abroad. He concludes that the outlook for US equities is positive, given continuing globalization, emerging world growth and rapid technological change.
The articles and country profiles in the Yearbook make for fascinating reading and we hope that it helps to guide readers through still challenging markets. The Yearbook is now one of a number of regular publications from the Credit Suisse Research Institute, which links the internal resources of our extensive research teams with world-class external research.
# posted by robertts12 @ 8:39 PM 
