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Gridlock Is Good for Stocks
Ken Fisher, 12.02.10, 01:20 PM EST
Forbes Magazine dated December 20, 2010
This holiday season give gifts that keep giving: stocks.
image
Slide Show: Buy Airline Stocks For The Holidays
More From Ken Fisher
Thank the Lord the elections yacking is over. It's been a good year. Stocks and bonds are up, and economies are growing around the world. Sentiment remains grumpy and cautious, and as a value-oriented investor I am thankful for this, too. Worriers tend to fuel bull markets.
We haven't had a negative stock market return in either the 6 or 12 months following a midterm election since World War II.
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It's typically a time when the volume of political noise gets ratcheted down from the blaring levels of the midterm election year. Look forward to the gridlock of the coming year, because little gets accomplished. If you hate politicians as much as I do you'll find this quiet marvelous. Markets do!
So imbibe some holiday cheer. And if you aren't big on toys, buy your offspring and grand-offspring holiday gifts that will keep giving, like the stocks below.
I've long loved emerging markets airlines because they usually sell at bargain prices. The troubled history of developed market airlines unfairly taints these stocks. In the emerging world they're growth stocks.
In the Jan. 18 issue of FORBES I recommended Chile's leading airline, LAN (LFL, 31), at $16 and China Eastern Airlines (CEA, 28) at $18 adjusted for a 2:1 split. On Nov. 2, 2009 I recommended TAM (TAM, 24), Brazil's leader, at $13. Both TAM and LAN are holds in my book.
CEA is still worthy of purchase at current prices. It is aggressive, gaining market share, well managed and growing nicely, yet sells at ten times my estimate of 2011 earnings and one times trailing revenue.
New money buyers should focus on Brazil's second-biggest airline, Gol Intelligent Airlines (GOL, 15). While TAM is Brazil's established high-quality airline with premium pricing, Gol is the new low-cost up-and-comer. Gol now controls 40% of Brazil's seating capacity with over 800 daily flights to more than 61 South American destinations. It's much cheaper than TAM at six times my estimate of 2011 earnings, 1.5 times book value and 80% of annual revenue.
Buy Danish FLSmidth & Co. (FLIDY, 8). It represents the whip end of the materials comeback in the economic expansion. The company provides engineering services to cementmakers, especially in the emerging markets. It's particularly strong in India, where it has over 3,000 employees.
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Home Page for the World's Business Leaders Free Trial Issue
Search
Stock Quote
U.S. EUROPE ASIA
Become a member | Log In
Portfolio |
Forbes Stock Market Course-Save $50
Home
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Business
Tech
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Entrepreneurs
Leadership
ForbesLife
Opinions
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VideoForbesWomanCEO NetworkOrg Chart WikiMobilePortfolio TrackerBlogsE-mail NewslettersSpecial Reports
Portfolio Strategy
Gridlock Is Good for Stocks
Ken Fisher, 12.02.10, 01:20 PM EST
Forbes Magazine dated December 20, 2010
This holiday season give gifts that keep giving: stocks.
image
Slide Show: Buy Airline Stocks For The Holidays
More From Ken Fisher
Thank the Lord the elections yacking is over. It's been a good year. Stocks and bonds are up, and economies are growing around the world. Sentiment remains grumpy and cautious, and as a value-oriented investor I am thankful for this, too. Worriers tend to fuel bull markets.
We haven't had a negative stock market return in either the 6 or 12 months following a midterm election since World War II.
Article Controls
Emailemail
imageprint
imagereprint
imagenewsletter
imageshare
imagedel.icio.us
imageDigg It!
imageyahoo
imageFacebook
imageTwitter
imageReddit
imagerss
Yahoo! Buzz
It's typically a time when the volume of political noise gets ratcheted down from the blaring levels of the midterm election year. Look forward to the gridlock of the coming year, because little gets accomplished. If you hate politicians as much as I do you'll find this quiet marvelous. Markets do!
So imbibe some holiday cheer. And if you aren't big on toys, buy your offspring and grand-offspring holiday gifts that will keep giving, like the stocks below.
I've long loved emerging markets airlines because they usually sell at bargain prices. The troubled history of developed market airlines unfairly taints these stocks. In the emerging world they're growth stocks.
In the Jan. 18 issue of FORBES I recommended Chile's leading airline, LAN (LFL, 31), at $16 and China Eastern Airlines (CEA, 28) at $18 adjusted for a 2:1 split. On Nov. 2, 2009 I recommended TAM (TAM, 24), Brazil's leader, at $13. Both TAM and LAN are holds in my book.
CEA is still worthy of purchase at current prices. It is aggressive, gaining market share, well managed and growing nicely, yet sells at ten times my estimate of 2011 earnings and one times trailing revenue.
New money buyers should focus on Brazil's second-biggest airline, Gol Intelligent Airlines (GOL, 15). While TAM is Brazil's established high-quality airline with premium pricing, Gol is the new low-cost up-and-comer. Gol now controls 40% of Brazil's seating capacity with over 800 daily flights to more than 61 South American destinations. It's much cheaper than TAM at six times my estimate of 2011 earnings, 1.5 times book value and 80% of annual revenue.
Buy Danish FLSmidth & Co. (FLIDY, 8). It represents the whip end of the materials comeback in the economic expansion. The company provides engineering services to cementmakers, especially in the emerging markets. It's particularly strong in India, where it has over 3,000 employees.
Page:
1
2
Next >
Get Stories By Email
Select Topics:
*
CEPR
WIT
HAS
*
LEA
Ken Fisher
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Receive Special Offers?
FAQ |Terms & Conditions | Privacy Policy
Just $1.15 an issue
Name
Address
City
State
Zip
Most Popular
1. The 'Ferrari' Of Electric Bicycles | Video
2. Daily Dividend Report: NLY, MSFT, PCG, XEL, DFS | Video
3. Forget Zuckerberg. This Guy Is Changing Facebook. | Video
4. Clear The Housing Market! | Video
5. The World's Billionaires | Story
6. The World's First Cancer Vaccine | Video
7. The Coming College Education Bubble | Story
8. America's Best Cities For Young Adults | Story
9. NFL Players With The Most To Lose In A Lockout | Story
10. How To Stop Procrastinating | Story
Most Commented
1. Can Congress Force Us To Purchase Health Care We Don't Want?18 Comments
2. The Bush Income Tax Cuts Were (Very Mildly) Progressive13 Comments
3. It's Not Just Business12 Comments
4. Making Personal Loans For Fun And Profit10 Comments
5. Why Ben Is Addicted To Failure9 Comments
More >
SitemapHelpContact UsInvestment NewslettersForbes ConferencesForbes Magazines
Ad Information Self-Serve Advertising Forbes.com Mobile RSS Reprints/Permissions
Subscriber Services Privacy Statement Terms, Conditions and Notices
2010 Forbes.com LLC™ All Rights Reserved
# posted by robertts12 @ 4:43 PM 
